The Denver Nuggets (47-30) will visit the Golden State Warriors (45-31) in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Nuggets are 1-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Nuggets -1), with the over/under set at 236.5 total points. Denver is a -115 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Nuggets vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Friday, April 4.
Nuggets vs Warriors Prediction
Following a thrilling 140-139 defeat to Minnesota, the Nuggets were a bit flat on the second leg of a back-to-back when they lost 113-106 to the Spurs. However, with a much-needed day of rest, it's worth noting that there has only been one instance this season when the Nuggets suffered three straight defeats.
While the situational spot looks slightly better for the Nuggets, it's Golden State's turn to play on short rest. Although the Warriors are 7-5 this season on the second half of back-to-back games, it faces a massive challenge against a Nuggets team that's won nine straight games in this series.
My Pick: Nuggets ML (-115)
Nuggets vs Warriors Betting Odds, Picks
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 236.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 236.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
- Nuggets vs. Warriors spread: Nuggets -1
- Nuggets vs. Warriors over/under: 236.5 total points
- Nuggets vs. Warriors moneyline: Warriors -105, Nuggets -115
- Nuggets vs. Warriors best bet: Nuggets ML (-115)
My Warriors vs. Nuggets best bet is on Denver moneyline, with the best odds available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors NBA Preview
Golden State's inability to match up with Denver's Nikola Jokic is a big reason why this head-to-head series has been so lopsided. The Warriors generally play with smaller lineups, leaving themselves completely vulnerable against Jokic.
Jokic is far from your average post player, given all the skills he commands on the court. He can bring the ball up the court, run the offense, find an open man and pass out of a double-team when inside the paint. In his last 10 games in this series, he's averaging 31.7 points, 13.3 rebounds and 9.0 assists.
If we look at the Warriors' roster, Quinten Post is the only player listed as a center. While Post offers some size with his 7-foot, 238-pound frame, he's almost 50 pounds lighter than Jokic, who Denver lists at 284 pounds. Moreover, Post is still a rookie with just 38 appearances and 14 starts. He averaged 16.8 minutes per game during those outings, which suggests his playing time might have been more about filling a void if the Warriors were shorthanded.
The other taller players on the Warriors' roster are Kevon Looney and Trayce Jackson-Davis, who are 6-foot-9. But again, both players are a bit light in the caboose, with Jokic being at least 40 pounds heavier.
Since Denver's dominance in this series dates back to the start of the 2022 season, it's pretty clear the Warriors still struggled even with more of a perimeter attack that featured Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. And although the Warriors currently rank fourth in 3-point field goals (15.4 per game), they're only 16th in Offensive Efficiency (114.2), while the Nuggets are ranked fourth (118.9).
As a result, there's a decent chance that Golden State's 3-point prowess will be less effective against the Nuggets, and the recent head-to-head results in this series further strengthen that theory.
Draymond Green has a points + assists prop of 16.5, a number he has failed to cover in five of his last six games. Green's assists average of 5.7 per game are his lowest since his third season in the pros, when he averaged 3.7.
Moreover, Golden State's decision to add Jimmy Butler ahead of the trade deadline might have lessened its reliance on Green as a facilitator. Butler is averaging 6.0 assists with the Warriors, matching his second-highest output among the five teams he's played for in his career.
There's a subtle shift in the dynamics of how this Warriors team now operates, and bettors would be wise to take advantage of this opportunity before the sportsbooks adjust their numbers.
Nuggets vs Warriors Best Bet
- Nuggets Moneyline (-115)
Nuggets vs Warriors Same Game Parlay
- Nuggets ML
- Draymond Green Under 16.5 Points + Assists
Parlay Payout: +240
Nuggets vs. Warriors Betting Trends
