Last year, the Thunder finished with the No. 1 seed in the West, won 57 games and fell in the second round to the Dallas Mavericks. They had the second-best net rating in the NBA, the third-best offense and the fourth-best defense.
Yet, last year’s Thunder had clear weaknesses. They were a terrible rebounding team (27th on offense, 29th on defense). They also really struggled on offense when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was off the floor, turning it over a lot more and drawing fewer fouls.
The Thunder are young and didn't stand pat after a great season. They traded Josh Giddey straight up for Alex Caruso and signed Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency. The Thunder are favored to have the best record in the West, but I still think there is a lack of understanding as to just how good their regular season should be.
Swapping out Giddey will be a positive move for this team. Of the players who played over 900 minutes last season, eight had an effective field goal percentage of at least 55.7% — Giddey's was 52.3%. Giddey also had the highest turnover rate at 14.8%.
While Giddey did get a lot of rebounds, the team rebounded the same with him both on and off the floor, suggesting that he didn’t contribute to actual rebounding success, but was just number padding.
The biggest positive for Giddey is when he was on the floor without Gilgeous-Alexander. The offense was better than if he wasn't there (116.4 vs. 109.8). Yet despite this, the Thunder were better when both Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey were off the floor than when just Gilgeous-Alexander was, because the defense was seven points worse when Giddey was out there.
Giddey's missing usage on the second team will allow Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren to explore the offensive space, which will help them become better players, and ultimately lead better efficiency.
Hartenstein is a tremendous rebounder. Hartenstein rebounded 12% of New York's misses last season. The high on the Thunder last season was 6.5%. He will help on the defensive glass — where he grabbed 20% of misses — as he helped limit opponents to only a 24.6% offensive rebound rate while on the floor.
Hartenstein has also shown an ability to be an efficient offensive player, hitting shots and setting great screens. Last season, when Hartenstein played with Jalen Brunson, the Knicks had a net rating of +15.9. When Hartenstein wasn't out there, but Brunson still was, that fell to +2.6. Adding Hartenstein in place of Giddey will help the Thunder score and won't compromise the spacing Giddey already wasn’t providing.
On defense, the additions of Hartenstein and Caruso are ridiculous. The impact Caruso has made defensively over his career is incredible. In each season of his seven-season career, his team has been at least four points better defensively with him on the floor than off.
When he played for the Lakers, he often had good defenders around him. On the Bulls, that was rarely the case. Yet last season, Chicago was a top-10 defense when he was on the floor. In the prior two seasons, the Bulls allowed 108.4 and 108.1 points per possession when he was on the floor, which would have been first and fourth in the NBA those seasons. His teams have never been below the 80th percentile in steals when he is on the floor.
He guards all positions and is probably the best one-on-one guard defender in the NBA.
Almost every top-two defense over the past five years has followed the same formula: They’ve played big men and had at least one, if not multiple, great perimeter defenders. The Thunder will be starting five great defensive players, and bringing their best defender off the bench.
I give the Thunder a 50% chance to be a top-two defense, which sounds absurd until you look at their overall talent and realize how great it is.
Even assuming no growth from any of their players, this team would easily win between 55 and 60 games, just building off of last season with their new additions. But Williams and Holmgren are especially young and will both likely get at least a little (or much) better. Gilgeous-Alexander has also improved in almost every season and was one of the most efficient players last year.
I don’t think the West race will be close. Oklahoma City has a coaching, depth and talent advantage.
The Thunder go nine deep with competent players who are good on both ends of the floor. Last year, the Celtics used a similar formula to finish with the best record in the NBA. This season, I expect the Thunder to do the same.
I'm betting the Thunder to finish with the best record in both the West and the NBA.
Every other team in the West has question marks on either offense or defense. Boston is a real threat to win more games, but with Kristaps Porzingis' injury, Oklahoma City has a slight edge.
I'm betting 1.5 units on Thunder to be the No. 1 seed at +175 on BetMGM (bet down to 140), and a half unit on the Thunder to have the best record in the NBA at +400 (bet down to 300). I'm also betting the Thunder to win 60 or more games.
In the past 20 years, there have been 43 teams that won at least 54 games and entered the following season with an over/under of at least 55.5.
Well, 32.5% of those teams won at least 60 games. My analysis has the Thunder hitting 60 or more wins over 50% of the time, and the stats back that up.
