Betting odds: Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets
- Spread: Thunder -1
- Over/Under: 221
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ABC
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The 21-11 Oklahoma City Thunder will visit the 17-15 Houston Rockets in Christmas Day's second game. The Rockets will be without Chris Paul, which, as noted below, could be problematic. Is there value on the Thunder at plus odds? What about the over/under? Our analysts dive in.
Notable Injuries
- Oklahoma City Thunder: Nothing.
- Houston Rockets: Chris Paul (hamstring) remains out.
Notable Stats
Betting Trends to Know
Chris Paul will miss at least two weeks with a hamstring injury. This season, the Rockets are 1-5 straight-up and against the spread, failing to cover by 10 points per game, when CP3 hasn’t played.— John Ewing
In their last game (Saturday), the Rockets beat the Spurs, 108-101, but really struggled shooting, going 37-95 (38.9%) from the field. Since 2005, teams to shoot under 40% from the field before playing on Christmas are 11-2 ATS (84.6%), covering the spread by 5.3 PPG.
Over the Rockets' last two games, they have done a terrific job of protecting the ball, turning it over fewer than 10 times in both games. The Rockets have accomplished that feat (10 TO or less in consecutive games) only five times prior under Mike D’Antoni. The Rockets are 5-0 straight-up in their next game. — Evan Abrams
Moore: What I'm Watching For
I'm flat-out shocked the Rockets are favored, and it makes me skittish. This thing has to move to a pick ‘em by tip, right? No Chris Paul — which, as stated above, means doom for the Rockets — OKC’s tough defensively, these two teams know each other, etc. The Thunder surrender the fourth-fewest 3-point attempts per 100 possessions, which directly counters Houston.
You want the sweet, golden nugget stat, though? The Rockets are going to try and force a switch with the Thunder: Steven Adams vs. James Harden on the perimeter. In those situations, Adams is committing a shooting foul just 3% of the time. He keeps those hands up, and that makes a huge difference against the Rockets. I like the under, and I like OKC.— Matt Moore
Locky: Is There Value on OKC?
It’s possible Houston is just never going to be healthy for a stretch run. It looked like the Rockets were rounding back into form; everyone was finally playing a lot of minutes together. And then Paul gets injured, and he’s out along with James Ennis (who is still out, also with a hamstring injury).
The Rockets may have won their last game against San Antonio, but they weren’t particularly sharp at either end of the court, and Harden needed 34 shots to score 39 points. That type of performance by Houston won’t result in a win if repeated on Christmas Day.
What is most interesting to me in this matchup is the way Oklahoma City (without Russell Westbrook) completely dominated Houston earlier this year, especially at the defensive end.
It was Houston’s worst offensive performance by a wide margin all season, and Harden was just 7-of-19. Sure, Carmelo Anthony was still on the team and naturally was terrible.
But it's also worth noting that Paul George had an excellent game, and Ennis, one of the Rockets who can defend George, played in that game and won’t suit up Christmas. George could have just as much success.
This theme of the Thunder defense handling the Rockets goes back to last season as well. Toward the end of the regular season, Oklahoma City held Houston to a below-average offensive efficiency, and on Christmas Day last year did the same.
Maybe it’s personnel or scheme or individual matchups, but the Thunder have success when these teams play, and it’s rooted in their performance on the defensive end. Without Paul (and even without Ennis), I think Houston could have trouble again. I like the Thunder +1.5.— Ken Barkley
Mears: Why I Like the Under
I'm most interested in this over/under, mostly because I think it's possible the Rockets defense could be undervalued moving forward.
Let's be honest: Houston's defense has sucked this year. Really bad. On the season, the Rockets rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, including 22nd in effective field goal percentage allowed.
There have been two main problems. First, they suck at rebounding the ball, ranking 29th in defensive rebound rate, grabbing only 29.5% of opponent misses. And second, they're also 29th in opponent field goal percentage allowed at the rim.
The reason for those rankings is because the Rockets have tried to employ the switching scheme that worked so well last year. It just hasn't worked this season, and teams have been happy to have center Clint Capela switch onto guards on the perimeter. It has taken him away from the paint, which has 1) hurt their rebound rate and 2) hurt their rim defense.
Head coach Mike D'Antoni has talked over the last week or so that they're going to move to a more traditional defensive scheme — one that keeps Capela dropped instead of switching. While that won't take them to the league's best defense, it will make them drastically better. And given that, I think the under has value in this one.— Bryan Mears
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
