Betting Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Portland Trail Blazers
- Spread: Trail Blazers -4
- Over/Under: 232
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: TNT
>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter this game trying to break a 1-5 slump and face the Trail Blazers in Portland, a team that has some interesting history with Russell Westbrook. The Thunder should have MVP candidate Paul George back for his second game after nursing a shoulder injury.
Will that be enough for OKC to break out of its funk? Our analysts discuss.
Betting Trends to Know
The Thunder (39-25) are currently the No. 4 seed in the West, but have lost six of their past 10 games. Good teams (teams winning 60% of their games) have gone 182-163-6 (53%) against the spread in their next game when they've lost more than half of their previous 10 games since 2005. Late in the season, (Game 55 and later) teams in this situation are 74-58-1 (56%) ATS. — John Ewing
The Blazers are 21-11 ATS at home this season, the fourth-most profitable home team against the spread in the NBA this season and the Blazers best mark since 2008.
The only issue?
Portland is coming off a seven-game road trip. Under head coach Terry Stotts, this will be just the Blazers second home game where they are coming off a road trip of at least seven games.
They lost by 19 at home in 2012. The league as a whole has struggled in this spot, going 41-50-1 (45.1%) ATS at home coming off at least a seven-game road trip, including 28-39 (41.8%) ATS when listed as the favorite in this spot. — Evan Abrams
Mears: How I'm Betting this Game
This is a very interesting line, as Blazers -4 suggests they’re about even or maybe even slightly better on a neutral court. Their records are the same, but the Thunder have won all three of the previous matchups this year.
Since the new year began, Portland has been on fire, going 18-9 with a +7.1 point differential — good for third in the league. The offense has been blistering, as they’ve ranked second in efficiency, scoring 117.3 points per 100 possessions. The Thunder, meanwhile, have posted a middling +1.2 point differential since the new year, ranking outside the top 10 on both sides of the floor.
Most of that is because they’ve lost six of their past eight games, including dropping their most recent one in Minnesota by 11 points. It’s been ugly, particularly on offense, although George — one of the rightful frontrunners for MVP this season — was out for three of those games. The Thunder failed to cover all three.
That makes sense, though, given PG’s statistical impact this season. With him on the floor, the Thunder have been 19.8 points per 100 possessions better than with him off; that’s in the 99th percentile of all players. He’s felt on both ends, with his net differential on those ranking in the 99th percentile for offense and 92nd for defense. He’s obviously incredibly important.
He came back last game, but didn’t look quite 100%, logging 38 minutes and shooting 8-of-25 from the field. It’s hard to know how healthy he is, which has a big impact on this game and line.
On the one hand, having no minutes restrictions and shooting that much is a positive sign he’s feeling well. On the other hand, shoulder injuries could be problematic for shooting.
Anecdotally, he looked pretty fine on his shots. Take this step-back 3-pointer:
Fluid. Rewatching that film, he was missing a lot of open shots, from both inside the arc and outside:
I’m fine with assuming he’s healthy and will be his old self, and if that’s the case then the Thunder are probably a bit undervalued in this spot.
Further, they’re a tough matchup for the Blazers — a reason they’ve won the first three matchups of the year. Portland almost never gets out in transition (ranking 29th in frequency), and OKC is great at forcing opponents into tougher halfcourt sets. That’ll happen again tonight, but the issue is that OKC’s defense is elite in the half court, allowing just 91.7 points per 100 possessions.
On the other side of the ball, the Thunder have had success this season shooting against the Blazers, hitting 42.7% of their 3s. That’s been a problem all year for Portland.
Another problem is transition, as OKC generated a super-high 20.3% of its possessions in that phase of the game. The Blazers struggled on those plays, leading to open shots for the Thunder:
Again, the Thunder just match up well against the Blazers, and I think they’re just a superior team when healthy — something this line doesn’t reflect. As a result, I think the value here is to fade the public and bet on a bounce back game from the Thunder.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
