The Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25 last season) will head on the road to take on the Denver Nuggets (57-25) as each team tips off its season Thursday at 10 p.m. ET. The game is airing live on TNT and streaming on YouTube TV and other streaming apps.
The Nuggets are 2-point favorites over the Thunder (+2) on the spread, with the over/under currently at 227.5 points. The Nuggets are -132 favorites on the moneyline to win outright, while the Thunder are +110 favorites to pull off the upset.
Let's dive into my Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, October 24.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction
My picks: Nuggets 1Q -.5 | Double Result: Nuggets 1H / Thunder full game +525
The Nuggets' strength is their starting five. They are deeper since the addition of Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric and the potential outbreak of Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson. But I’d still rather back the Nuggets when their best players are out there, so I’ll take them in the first quarter. Last season, they were the best first quarter team at 51-31 ATS and 27-14 at home. Meanwhile, the Thunder were just 18-23 on the road, despite being the second-best first quarter team playing at home
Not to mention, their own potential breakout star, Jalen Williams, is questionable. If J-Dub is in, I’ll also sprinkle on a double result, Nuggets first half/Thunder second-half, since the Thunder are so dominant in the second half and the Nuggets have the edge early.
For all of your NBA bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NBA odds page.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -112 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -108 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- Thunder vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -2
- Thunder vs. Nuggets over/under: 227.5 points
- Thunder vs. Nuggets moneyline: Nuggets -132, Thunder +110
- Thunder vs. Nuggets best bet: Nuggets 1Q -.5 | Double Result: Nuggets 1H / Thunder full game +525
Spread
I lean Nuggets at -2 but would need a PK or better to back Denver.
Moneyline
Similar to the spread, I would consider Denver moneyline closer to -115 or better.
Over/Under
At open, the over was more appealing at 224.5, but I would need this to drop to 223 before playing it. If this gets to 227.5, I would play the under.
My picks: Nuggets 1Q -.5 | Double Result: Nuggets 1H / Thunder full game +525
Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Trends
- 52% of bets and 50% of the money are on the Nuggets to cover the spread.
- 86% of bets and 14% of the money on the moneyline are on the Nuggets to win outright.
- 80% of bets and 82% of the money are on the over.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Start Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado |
| Date: | Thursday, October 24 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | TNT / Max, YouTube TV |
Nuggets vs. Thunder is scheduled for a 10 p.m. ET start time, live from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on Thursday. The game is live on TNT and is streaming on Max and YouTube TV.
Thunder vs. Nuggets NBA Preview
Oklahoma City Thunder: Denver Has No Answer for SGA
It’s surprising the Nuggets don’t have a better record against the Thunder given Nikola Jokić's massive size. Chet Holmgren may be 7'1", but he’s barely 200 pounds soaking wet and yet Oklahoma City has won and covered in four of the last five head-to-head matchups. But part of their success has come from their relentless drive and energy, stemming from their youth and tactical coaching thanks to head coach Mark Daigneault. Oklahoma City has been one of the best second-half teams during his tenure. They just keep trying until the game ends. Since the 2021-22 season, the Thunder are 41-30-11 in the second half, according to Bet Labs, pulling in a 9% ROI.
The reason they’re still competitive despite the mismatch is due in large part to their best player and MVP candidate, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Against a team like Denver, Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t have much by way of perimeter resistance, especially now that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is gone. In their last five matchups dating back to Jan. 22, 2023, the Thunder have won and covered in all three games and SGA has averaged 33 points per game. However, it should be noted that Jokić was out for their most recent head-to-head.
Denver Nuggets: Can Braun Replace KCP?
The Nuggets have an opposite roster construction. We know they have the top-end talent with the best player in the league with Jokić, but the depth falls off when we get to the 6-12 guys. But when we look at some of the most-played lineups, the Nuggets were the team with some of the best five on the court when they played their starting lineup.
Jamal Murray, Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Jokić produced the fourth-best Point Differential for lineups that played more than 500 possessions together, per Cleaning the Glass. Caldwell-Pope is no longer with the team, but if we sub him out for Christian Braun — the Nuggets' proposed replacement — that lineup produced a +16.3 point differential (albeit in just 52 possessions). Braun doesn’t provide the spacing that Caldwell-Pope gave Jokić and the Nuggets, but his youth and athleticism could add a measure of defense and off-ball movement that KCP couldn’t provide as an older vet.
