Check out this post for updated season win total and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.
Thunder Win Total Odds
The Case for the Over
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander is a legit stud. Al Horford is a legit vet. The team has a lot of institutional knowledge. The over is just 21 wins. Less than 30% win percentage for the over.
We’re talking the lowest of bars.
There are more guys on this team than you’d think. George Hill has won everywhere he’s gone (except Sacramento, but let’s not talk about that). Kenrich Williams, Frank Jackson, Lu Dort, Justin Jackson, Mike Muscala — these are all NBA-roster-caliber guys.
The Thunder can finish with a top-three pick and still win 21 games. And that combo of SGA and Horford is legit. They’ll tear up some teams.
The Case for the Under
There is no reason to suspect Horford, Trevor Ariza or Hill will be on the roster by the end of the season.
The Thunder have made their intentions completely clear: They are rebuilding through the draft. Nothing is getting in the way of that. Oklahoma City could have run back last year’s team, a scrappy crew that fought for every point. Instead, it completely emptied what it could from the cupboards.
This team has no intention of winning. The Thunder actively do not want to win, as an organization. The team will play hard because they’re pros. But if they’re in the running for the top lottery spot, whoever needs to rest toward the end of the season will get that time off.
They play in the Western Conference and a division with three playoff teams. It’s hard to find a list of teams who they are better than, even if they wanted to win.
Oklahoma City Thunder Win Total Bet
I kind of think this team falls into the over. I don’t think they want to, but if Horford suits up and if they don’t sit Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder are winning 22 games at least.
I don’t love it, because I don’t want to bet on a team to win games when it doesn't want to … win games. But if I had to take an angle, I’m taking the over.
