The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks will meet in the first round of the NBA playoffs.
The Bucks have Giannis. The Pacers have everything else. Brandon Anderson is rolling with Indiana in this 4–5 matchup and fading the idea that sheer star power can drag Milwaukee across the finish line. His logic? “One-man teams don’t win playoff series.” And he’s got the bets—and the history—to back it up.
The Pacers are trendy. The Bucks are beat up. But Matt Moore’s betting the underdog anyway. In a 4–5 matchup that looks deceptively simple on paper, he sees market mispricing, under-the-radar chemistry, and a one-man wrecking ball in Giannis who can still carry a series—if the lineup data checks out. Spoiler: Matt thinks it does.
Continue below as they make the case for both sides in our Pacers vs. Bucks predictions, picks, and odds for the opening round of the NBA playoffs.
Pacers vs. Bucks First Round Series Betting Odds
- Series Winner: Pacers -170, Bucks +140
- Series Spread: Pacers -1.5 games (+130), Bucks +1.5 games (-160)
Pacers vs. Bucks NBA Playoffs Picks & Predictions
By Matt Moore
Matt's Pacers vs. Bucks Best Bet: Milwaukee to Win the Series (+190)
He’s taking the full series line instead of playing exact results.
“Bucks to win the series outright +190… I have this number considerably shorter, so I’m happy to go ahead and grab this.”
Why not get fancy?
“Give yourself the most outs… You’re going into a Bucks team that’s missing $40 million in salary.”
Milwaukee’s Efficiency Profile is Sneaky Solid
The Bucks still hold a better schedule-adjusted net rating than Indiana (+2.3 vs. +1.6).
“They actually grade out better from that category.”
On dunksandthrees.com: Bucks are 10th in offense, 12th in defense—a top-half profile in both.
“Pacers are ninth in offense, 16th in defense… I think you’re right that the Pacers’ defense has gotten better. But the Bucks aren’t slouches.”
The Matchup Math Tilts Toward the Bucks
Indiana’s offense lives in the midrange—where Milwaukee’s drop defense thrives.
“The Pacers are 17th in rim rate, 21st in three-point rate… That is in fact what Milwaukee wants opponents to do.”
The Bucks are 5th-best defending the rim and 6th in rim attempts allowed.
“They are back to good old-fashioned Brook Lopez is going to drop, and everybody’s going to stay home on the shooters.”
Giannis is Playing at a Championship Level
Since Dame went out, Giannis is averaging 30-12-8—with a huge midrange bump.
“If Giannis really wanted to, he could average a 30-point triple-double and do it pretty effortlessly.”
His midrange dominance echoes his 2021 Finals run.
“He’s been awesome in the midrange… Remember the last time he had a season like this? It was the one they won the championship.”
Lineups > Individuals
Matt doesn’t buy “one-man team” concerns if the lineup net ratings hold.
“The Bucks as a five-man unit can construct enough of them to be able to get an advantage.”
Indiana’s depth is solid, but inconsistent.
“Some of their lineup stuff has been a little wonky… There’s great ones and there’s weird ones.”
Season Series: Pacers Won Transition, Bucks Won Games
Indiana crushed Milwaukee in transition: +9.3, +14.4points added in two of the four games.
“In three of the four matchups, the Pacers killed them in transition… and the Bucks win anyway.”
Milwaukee won the season series 3–1, and the starters won their minutes.
“It was when I got into the starters winning their minutes… that I got really interested.”
There Are Concerns—But They're Manageable
Kyle Kuzma’s fit is bad, but he’s not a dealbreaker.
“I am deeply concerned about Kyle Kuzma… He has been a drag.”
The hope? Smaller, more efficient lineups without him.
“We’re better with Gary Trent Jr., Kevin Porter, AJ, and a big.”
Coaching Mismatch? Sure. But He’s Not Panicking
Carlisle is a clear edge—but Matt gives Doc credit for one thing.
“The coaching gap is monstrous… But Doc has consistently done a really good job coaching outmanned teams.”
That specific Doc archetype—“backed into a corner”—might be in play here.
“Short-handed Doc maybe is the better version of Rivers on this one.”
Matt’s Final Recommendation:
Bet Bucks to win the series outright at +190 (FanDuel or Caesars)
Fade the narrative, back the numbers: “The Bucks are actually pretty good.”
Key Trends to Track:
Watch if Milwaukee continues to generate corner threes
Giannis midrange production and on-court efficiency hold the keys
Pacers vs. Bucks NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Preview
The Core Thesis: Giannis Can’t Do It Alone
“One-man teams don’t win playoff series. Pacers roll.”
Brandon looked back across NBA history and noticed a consistent pattern:
“Wilt really lost a bunch of playoff series. Why is that happening? Well, his teammates sucked. Wilt did awesome. He put up all the numbers, but his teammates did nothing… We got early career Michael Jordan. We got lots of examples of truly great, awesome players that were really great in the playoffs. But one man.”
Even if Giannis has a monster series, Brandon doesn’t think it’ll be enough:
“I think he can do that and still the Pacers win.”
Series Bets: Targeting Exact Outcomes and Value Props
Brandon is betting two exact score outcomes:
Pacers 4–1 at +410
Pacers 4–2 at +525
“Split evenly gives me a +181. So that’s the bet.”
Why not just bet Pacers -190 to win the series?
“I’m giving up the sweep and giving up the home Game 7. I know home Game 7 is important, but I don’t know if I want a home Game 7 with Giannis, the best player on the court anyways.”
Best prop bet on the board? No hesitation:
“Giannis most points in the series, -220. I’m taking the -220. That should be like a 400 or 500 number. That’s at Bet365. Love that one. I’m kind of using that to fund my Pacers money.”
Other props Brandon’s watching but hasn’t locked in:
“Kevin Porter Jr. steals”
“Myles Turner threes as series leaders… But steals and threes are very volatile markets. Somebody’s going to make five threes in the first game. If it’s Miyes Turner, I don’t get to bet it anymore. If it’s anybody else… now we bet it.”
Why Brandon is Skeptical of the Bucks’ “Surge”
Milwaukee’s post-Dame record (9–4) isn’t impressing him:
“The schedule is Charmin soft. It’s so bad.”
The numbers scream shooting regression:
“Top two offensively in EFG, top two fewest turnovers, top two in free throw rate. They’ve basically played like a hyper elite offense over this stretch. That doesn’t check out to me as a top two hyper elite offense.”
Even with good players around Giannis:
“Does it check out to me as a good offense? Absolutely. This is the thing both of us have wanted them to do… I can’t get to top two.”
His concern? No backup plans:
“What if the shots don’t fall for a while? Where’s the easy button? I’m afraid they don’t have one.”
Indiana’s Rise Feels Real
“Since January 1, the Indiana Pacers are top-10 offense and defense in the NBA.”
He attributes the turnaround to:
“That is since Tyrese Haliburton I think finally got healthy… That’s how good he’s been the second half of the season.”
On Haliburton’s impact:
“8.8 BPM… That is a Chris Paul team when Tyrese Haliburton is Tyrese Halliburtoning.”
He loves the depth advantage:
“TJ McConnell, Obi Toppin… they were really good in that run last year. When I don’t believe in the Bucks starters, I’m certainly not going to believe in the guys coming in off the bench.”
Final Word: Margin for Error Matters
Giannis needs to be superhuman:
“I don’t know if [the Bucks] can win a mediocre Giannis game.”
Meanwhile, Indiana is built to absorb variance:
“The Pacers can win a game with a bad Haliburton performance. They can’t win the series that way, but they can win a game or multiple games.”
Which brings us full circle:
“I just… basketball is a team game and I can’t get there with one man being that good… I just think the Pacers are the clearly better team.”
Brandon's Pacers vs. Bucks Betting Card
Best Bet: Split between Pacers 4–1 (+410) and 4–2 (+525) for a +181 blended return
Prop to Grab ASAP: Giannis to lead series in points (-220)
Watchlist: KPJ steals and Turner threes—wait for value post-Game 1
