The Indiana Pacers (2-0) will visit the Milwaukee Bucks (0-2) for Game 3 of their first round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Bucks are 5.5-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread, with the over/under set at 230 total points. Milwaukee is a -220 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +180 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Pacers vs. Bucks predictions and NBA picks on Friday, April 25.
Pacers vs Bucks Prediction, Odds, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 3
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 230 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 230 -110o / -110u | -220 |
- Pacers vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -5.5
- Pacers vs. Bucks over/under: 230 total points
- Pacers vs. Bucks moneyline: Pacers +180, Bucks -220
- Pacers vs. Bucks best bet: Pacers TT Over 112.5 (-115)
My Bucks vs. Pacers Game 3 best bet is on Indiana to go over its team total of 112.5 points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Pacers Team Total Over 112.5 Points (-115)
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Preview
Damian Lillard's return to the starting lineup wasn't enough to help the Bucks salvage a split in Indiana. Now, as the series shifts to Milwaukee, the market expects the Bucks to bounce back, betting the point spread up from -3 to -5.5. However, the current line seems a bit steep, given what we've seen defensively from the Bucks in the series thus far.
Game 3 will tell us a lot more about how this series will unfold. My model projects this matchup as a one-possession game with the Bucks as a 2.9-point favorite. While I would still give Milwaukee a slight edge, I don't see any value in laying moneyline odds as high as -220.
Although I expect this to be a higher-scoring game, I'm more interested in the Pacers' team total at 112.5 points. The Bucks have struggled with Indiana's floor spacing all season, and their lack of adjustments suggests that trend could continue in Game 3 tonight.
The underlying numbers weren't particularly good for the Bucks in Game 2. Not a single one of their starters finished with a plus/minus above zero in a game Milwaukee never led at any point over the four quarters.
While Lillard's return certainly helps the Bucks offensively, he's not exactly a two-way player. The reality is that the 9-time All-Star has never been a lockdown defender in his career.
One of the issues for Milwaukee is that it doesn't have a true backcourt of traditional guards. Lillard has to do much of the heavy lifting to score and create shots for his teammates because Kyle Kuzma is more of a small forward trying to play the role of shooting guard.
I would argue that the Bucks should adopt a smaller lineup to increase the involvement of players like Gary Trent Jr. and AJ Green in the game. They need more shooters on the court to have a better chance of moving the ball faster.
The Bucks ranked 21st in assists (25.5) during the regular season, and that number is down to 20.5 during the playoffs. In comparison, Indiana is averaging a league-best 29 assists through two postseason games.
The Pacers move the ball quickly to find the open man, and they don't turn down uncontested shots. Their style of play is more rewarding and often makes the game feel like it's played at a faster pace. Moreover, opponents tend to speed up their play against Indiana, which in turn benefits them in the long run.
In other words, these opposing teams essentially have to find a way to beat the Pacers by playing a style that's not entirely familiar to them. While I expect the Bucks to make some adjustments in Game 3, I suspect the changes will be more offensive and lead to a back-and-forth affair, making the Pacers' team total of 112.5 points well within reach.
Another player on the Bucks who is probably deserving of more minutes is Kevin Porter Jr. The USC-product is only two years removed from averaging 19.2 points as a member of the Rockets.
Porter is a high-impact player who gets on the stat sheet from the minute he enters a game. While playing just under 20 minutes per game, he averaged 11.7 points and 3.7 assists with the Bucks.
His points + assists prop is available at 10.5, a number he cleared in seven of his previous eight games at home. During that stretch, he covered the number with relative ease, averaging 19.5 points + assists with a median of 21.5. Against the Pacers, he has covered the line in each of his last four meetings, averaging 15.5 points + assists.
There's a clear directness that Porter can bring to a game, and he should continue to be an asset for a Bucks team that's desperate to create more scoring opportunities on offense.
Pacers vs. Bucks Best Bet for Game 3
- Pacers Team Total Over 112.5 (-115)
Pacers vs. Bucks Game 3 Parlay Picks
- Kevin Porter Jr. Over 10.5 Points + Assists
- Pacers Team Total Over 112.5 Points
Parlay Payout: +234
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Bucks vs. Pacers Betting Trends
