After the Celtics and Thunder cruised to convincing home victories last night, there's just one game on the docket for Wednesday night. However, we might be in a treat if tonight’s game is a repeat of Game 1. The Knicks took the series opener 121-117 on Monday night as they renewed their playoff rivalry with the Pacers.
They will be looking to take a 2-0 lead back to Indiana. If so, Jalen Brunson will likely lead the way. Meanwhile, former teammate Obi Toppin will look to provide a spark off the Pacers bench.
Pacers vs Knicks Player Props Tonight: Jalen Brunson & Obi Toppin (May 8)
When you think about a player getting even odds to score 38 points, there is not much value here. For instance, we cashed on Jaylen Brown scoring 30 points at +290 odds last night. I have to take this one, though, because Jalen Brunson keeps hitting this line.
Brunson is leading the league scoring in the playoffs (36.6 points per game) despite scoring just 46 points in Games 1 and 2 last round against Philadelphia. Brunson has scored 39 points in each of his last five games while averaging 42 points per game in that span. He scored 43 points in Game 1 against the Pacers and has now scored 38 points in each of these teams' last three meetings dating back to the regular season.
Additionally, it is hard to take an under on Brunson given his workload, having played 43 minutes in each of the last five games. Brunson would probably crack 50 points if he played as much as Josh Hart. Brunson is also shooting 50% from the field on 29 field goal attempts and averaging 12.4 free throw attempts per game over his last five games.
Brunson has that kind of volume against an Indiana team that is much better offensively. The Pacers allowed 35 and 29 points to Damian Lillard in the first half of consecutive games in the first round. They don't have a great matchup for Brunson and may deny him the ball at times. However, even in doing so, the Knicks often find a way to get the ball back in his hands during the possession.
As a result, Brunson will score 40 points for the fifth consecutive game.
With the injury to Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks rotation keeps getting shorter. Robinson scored two of the Knicks' three bench points on Monday night while the Pacers got 48 points from their bench. Indiana's depth is its advantage in this series, particularly with how passively Tyrese Haliburton is playing right now.
On Monday, we backed Ben Sheppard and he scored eight points off the bench. Tonight, I'm on Obi Toppin, who scored 12 points on Monday. That matches his scoring average in seven games this postseason. He has hit this line in each of his last five games while averaging 14.6 points per game. Toppin is shooting 57% from the field over his last five games, which matches his field goal percentage from the regular season when he averaged 10.3 points per game.
Additionally, Toppin is a Brooklyn native who played his first three NBA seasons for the Knicks. He certainly was trying to send his former team a message with his emphatic between-the-legs dunk at the end of the third quarter. His revenge angle may help Toppin score 10 points again tonight.
