Pacers vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks for Tuesday, March 5
Here's everything you need to know about Pacers vs. Mavericks on Tuesday, March 5 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Indiana Pacers head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks on Tuesday night as they continue their Western Conference road trip. On the flip side, the Mavericks are looking to bounce back after an ugly loss to the 76ers on Sunday.
Let's get to our Pacers vs. Mavericks prediction and pick.
Pacers vs. Mavericks Prediction
Pick: Mavericks -4
Pacers Betting Outlook
The Pacers have struggled a bit of late and have slipped down to eighth in the Eastern Conference. For this one, they will be without Doug McDermott (calf) while Aaron Nesmith (quad) and Ben Sheppard (illness) are both questionable.
The Pacers' offense has struggled over the last two weeks. They are scoring 116 points per 100 possessions, which is just league average compared to the full season. While this would not be a major issue for most teams, it is for the Pacers, who have a 119.4 defensive rating, the fifth-worst mark in the NBA over the last two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass. In order for Indiana to be successful, it needs to outscore its opponents — because its defense certainly is not stopping anyone.
Haliburton has struggled since the All-Star break. In the six games post All-Star break, he's averaging just 13.3 points and nine assists per game on 55.4% True Shooting. Those are all significantly diminished compared to his pre-All-Star numbers of 22.1 points and 12.5 assists per game at 65.5% True Shooting. If Haliburton is not right, then the Pacers are going to falter.
Mavericks Betting Outlook
The Mavericks have listed Luka Dončić (ankle) as questionable for this game along with Maxi Kleber (knee) and Derrick Jones Jr. (shoulder). Dončić's participation would obviously swing this spread drastically if he is unable to go.
The Mavericks have lost two in a row and also sit in eighth place in the Western Conference. Over the last two weeks, they are similarly situated to Indiana with one of the league's worst defenses (124.0 defensive rating), but the primary difference is they have the fifth-best offense overt that stretch at 120.2, per Cleaning the Glass. Their offense is humming but their defense has truly struggled.
One of the big swings defensively for both Dallas and Indiana has been that they are allowing their opponents to shoot 41.2% and 43.8% from 3, respectively, over the last two weeks. Both the Mavericks and the Pacers have the personnel to take advantage of that in this spot.
Pacers vs. Mavericks Picks, Odds
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 247 -110o / -110u | +154 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 247 -110o / -110u | -185 |
When looking at these two team's recent form, they both have issues. However, Indiana is struggling with its offensive identity, which is supposed to be its benchmark for success. The Pacers win games because of their offense, so when their best player is struggling to find a rhythm on that end, they are going to suffer.
Dallas has been one of the best ATS teams as a favorite this season, going 21-14 ATS as a favorite. This spot against a Pacers team that is struggling offensively while reeling defensively is one to target Dallas to end its two-game losing streak.
I'll lay the points with Dallas to win and cover at home.
Pick: Mavericks -4
