The Indiana Pacers (43-30) and Oklahoma City Thunder (61-12) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will be broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Thunder are 10-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread (Thunder -10), with the over/under set at 237.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -470 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +360 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Pacers vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, March 29.
Pacers vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction
Spread
Despite the Pacers' 7-3 edge in the last 10 meetings of this series, my numbers lean favorably toward the Thunder as a double-digit favorite.
Moneyline
I have no interest in the moneyline, with OKC's odds as high as -500.
Over/Under
The total does offer some intrigue since it was bet down from 238.5 to 237.5. However, with the Thunder being such a heavy favorite, we're practically getting a discount on Indiana's team total of 112.5.
My Pick: Pacers Team Total Over 112.5
Pacers vs. Thunder Odds
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 237.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 237.5 -110o / -110u | -470 |
- Pacers vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -10
- Pacers vs. Thunder over/under: 237.5 points
- Pacers vs. Thunder moneyline: Thunder -470, Pacers +360
- Pacers vs. Thunder best bet: Pacers Team Total Over 112.5 (-120)
My Pacers vs. Thunder best bet is on Indiana's team total Over at 112.5 points, with the best line currently available at Fanatics. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Pacers vs. Thunder Preview
After running the numbers, I was surprised my model projected a total closer to 230 points. While such a projection would align with the market's move from 238.5 to 237.5, I can't overlook the pace both teams are likely to play with. Indiana ranks seventh in pace, averaging 100.66 possessions, while OKC is right behind at No. 8 with 100.64.
I suspect playing such a fast-paced style has led to the Pacers' success in recent meetings. As mentioned, Indiana is 7-3 in their last 10 clashes, with the over also cashing in seven of those games. Since it's not in the Thunder's nature to try and slow things, Indiana will likely be emboldened to charge forward.
The Pacers are much more balanced than in previous seasons, as they're much less reliant on the three-point shot. Indiana ranks 22nd in 3-point attempts (35.4) despite sitting seventh in 3-point percentage (37.3%). Therefore, Indiana has capable shooters who can dial it up from the perimeter when necessary.
If we look at the other areas of the court where they're dangerous, the Pacers rank seventh in scoring inside the paint (51.1) and fifth in transition points with 17.3. As good as OKC is defensively, Indiana has the balance that could give the Thunder plenty of problems throughout the game.
It's also worth noting that the Pacers are coming off a game against the Wizards where they scored 162 points. Historically, teams in this spot average over 114 points in their next outing, adding credence to our play on the over with the Pacers' team total.
Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction
Given the Pacers' offensive balance, we can expect them to take a decent number of their scoring chances from inside the paint. This strategy should also create defensive opportunities for Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein to snag at least one block.
Hartenstein averages 1.08 blocks per game this season, with a median of 1.0. He has a blocks prop of 0.5—a number he has cleared in 35 of his 52 games (67%) with OKC. Moreover, he recorded at least one block in six of the 10 meetings against the Pacers.
Lastly, Hartenstein is on a nice streak, with a block in five of his last six games, averaging 1.83 with a median of 2.0. I think that streak continues on Saturday night, and combining it with the Pacers' team total helps boost our same-game parlay odds to +205.
Best Bet: Pacers Team Total Over 112.5 (-120)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 0.5 Blocks
- Pacers Team Total Over 112.5
Parlay Payout: +205
Thunder vs. Pacers Betting Trends
