This small five-game NBA slate is filled with action. The two best teams in the Eastern Conference play and there are two other teams that are 14 or higher home favorites. There are two props that caught my eye are two players who are in a great spot filled with so much opportunities to get over their prop.
We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
Saturday NBA Player Props
Dejounte Murray, Over 40.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-110)
| Spurs vs. Hornets | Hornets -4.5 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The San Antonio Spurs have lost three-straight games, but have a great opportunity to get back on track as they travel on the road to take on the Charlotte Hornets tonight. The Hornets are four-point home favorites.
This matchup is the best game environment on the slate as the total is set at a slate-high 237 points. This game should be extremely up-tempo as both teams rank in the top four of pace. The Hornets rank 22nd in Defensive Rating, allowing the third-most points in the league with 114.5 per game.
Not only do the Hornets allow a lot of points, but they also allow the second-most rebounds and assists per game. That sounds pretty inviting for a player who can fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways. Welcome Dejounte Murray.
Murray is second to Nikola Jokic for triple doubles this season with 12. He has a great chance to build on that total in this fantastic matchup. In 12 games without former teammate Derrick White, Murray has averaged 26.1 points, 10 assists, 8.6 rebounds, and a 30% usage rate per game.
Since the All-Star Break, Murray has surpassed this prop in two of his last three games. He continues to lead the Spurs in points, rebounds, and assists this season. This matchup presents such a great opportunity for Murray to showcase all of his skills. I would play this up to 41.5 tonight.
Mo Bamba, Over 1.5 Blocks (-135)
| Grizzlies vs. Magic | Grizzlies -16 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
It has been surprising, but the Orlando Magic have actually won three of their last four games. They still have the worst record in the league, but did beat the Toronto Raptors on the road last night. They are still massive underdogs on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight who present a much tougher task.
To make matters worse for the Magic tonight, they will be playing yet again without fellow frontcourt player Wendell Carter Jr. who is out due to an illness. Using our On/Off Tool on FantasyLabs, Bamba has a team-high +3.3% usage rate with Carter Jr. not on the floor this season. That is obviously great, but this prop is all about Bamba's shot-blocking upside.
Bamba can take advantage in this matchup with his defensive and shot-blocking abilities. He ranks tied for fourth in the league with 1.8 blocks per game. The Grizzlies are tied for the league-high in allowing 6.3 blocks per game. Ja Morant is so explosive and takes so many layups that it is bound to get blocked a few times. Bamba has plenty of opportunities for this prop.
The major concern with this prop is Bamba getting into foul trouble. Despite their victory last night, Bamba only played 25 minutes as he had five fouls. He has recorded one block in five-straight games. Our model has Bamba projected for 2.3 blocks tonight and there is strong action on the over.
It is unlikely that this prop would move, but I would not consider taking his over 2.5 blocks and steals at plus-money even thought that is an option. It is rare that Bamba gets many steals. Stick with his over 1.5 blocks prop tonight.
