Betting odds: Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz
- Spread: Jazz -6.5
- Over/Under: 214.5
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ESPN
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The 19-14 Portland Trail Blazers will travel to Utah on Christmas Day to face the 16-18 Jazz. These teams just met, and it was a blowout win in favor of the Jazz. Can the Blazers rebound? Our analysts discuss.
Notable Stats
Betting Trends to Know
The Jazz enter Christmas Day having gone under the total in their last six games by a margin of 11.9 PPG. Since December 1, Utah is 9-2 to the under, the second-most profitable team to the under in that stretch behind only the Pacers.
Since 2005, only two other teams have entered Christmas Day on at least a six-game over or under streak: the 2016 Bulls on the road in San Antonio (Chicago lost by 19 and the game went over) and the 2008 Hornets on the road in Orlando (New Orleans lost by 20 and the game went under).
The Jazz are six-point home favorites against the Blazers on Christmas Day, and Utah enters the game 16-18 on the season. The Jazz are the fourth team under .500 since 2005 to be favored on Christmas Day. The previous four teams went 3-1 straight-up, but no team was favored as high as the Jazz are against the Blazers. — Evan Abrams
Christmas Day games are the most-bet games during the regular season. With the influx of casual betting action, it has been profitable to fade the public during the holidays: Teams with less than 50% of bets have gone 33-21 ATS since 2005. A majority of spread tickets are on the Blazers. — John Ewing
Moore: Time to Fade the Blazers?
There’s just no reason to think the Blazers are actually good after how they fell off. They are this year’s “mirror” team. They woke up on December 1, saw themselves in the mirror and have been playing more like the team we expected since.
Portland's Net Rating in October? +7.5.
Net Rating in November? -0.8.
Net Rating in December? -2.0.
Utah has looked more like the team we expected. I’m not sold; they’re still highly scheme-able with the right personnel, and I don’t trust them to perform as well as they did last season vs. teams under. 500.
But Portland also doesn’t have that personnel. Jusuf Nurkic will get caught in no man’s land or commit too hard on Gobert. The Blazers’ wings will have trouble with Ricky Rubio off the pick, and Utah’s 3-point shooting in terms of makes per 100 possessions (13) is actually within range of Portland’s (12th). The math problem of trading 2s for 3s isn’t as stark.
I had to learn the hard way about home teams this season, and after being impressed with Portland’s hot start, I’m ready to fade the Blazers consistently.— Matt Moore
Locky: How I'm Handicapping This Affair
Christmas Day games often feature evenly-matched, highly-rated teams. But rarely are there games between teams that so recently played.
We’re all excited to watch Lakers-Warriors, partly because those teams haven’t played yet this year. The Blazers and Jazz played on Friday. It’s not quite the same from a buzz standpoint. The Jazz won that game by 30, by the way.
For Utah, it’s the same old song. We keep waiting for the run — waiting for the team to play like it did to close last year. The Jazz haven’t had significant injuries, but yet here they sit at 16-18, a couple games out of the playoffs.
In their most recent loss to the Thunder, they held Oklahoma City down defensively for much of the fourth quarter but came up basically one possession short.
These are two teams that I think have been the most unpredictable game-to-game this season (Houston would also qualify in that category). The Jazz beat the Heat by 30 and lost to the Magic the next game, posting a miserable 88 offensive efficiency.
The Blazers this month had their worst offensive performance of the season against Memphis, and then the NEXT game, their second-best of the entire year.
Realistically, these teams are actually pretty even, and my numbers make it Jazz -7 (building in a four-point home-court advantage). At -6/6.5, I’d slightly lean Utah, but my ratings have been high on the Jazz most of the year, and therefore I’ve been disappointed many times.— Ken Barkley
Mears: Why I'm Buying the Jazz
Look at the "Notable Stats" section above. In any of the four factors on either side of the ball, the Blazers really have no distinct advantages. The Jazz are just a better version of the Blazers.
I'm currently buying the Jazz. They've played a tough schedule so far this year, and still they sit top-10 in point differential right now. They've struggled offensively, ranking just 21st, but they're definitely an elite defense, sitting fourth at the moment.
And I think the offense should improve. There are positive indicators, most notably their shot profile. They're fifth in frequency of shots at the rim, 11th in 3-point rate and third in corner 3-pointers. They take very few mid-range shots and instead opt for high-efficient options.
And they haven't even been that bad shooting; they're currently 13th in effective field goal percentage. There's just one main issue, and it's a big one: turnovers. They currently sit 27th in turnover rate (mostly due to Ricky Rubio), and that's why there's such a big discrepancy between their shooting numbers and overall offensive efficiency.
The turnover issues will get better, but it doesn't even matter in this game. The Blazers are the second-worst team in the league at forcing turnovers on defense, and their guards aren't particularly adept at that skill.
Again, the Jazz defense is elite, and their one offensive weakness likely won't be an issue in this matchup. I think that leads to some value on the Jazz here at -6 at home.— Bryan Mears
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
