Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
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2019 Year-to-Date Record
442-342-21, +68.40 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 224-171-4, +31.10 Units
- NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
- MLB: 8-8-1, -1.38 Units
- Golf: 4-7-1, -2.35 Units
- NASCAR: 5-8-0, -1.70 Units
- NCAAB: 91-52-8, +22.50 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 23-2-0, +12.64 Units
Freedman’s Favorite NBA Player Prop for Monday, April 1: Devin Booker Over/Under 6.5 Assists
- Over 6.5: -132
- Under 6.5: +102
Now that March Madness is almost over, it's time to shift our focus back to the NBA, which today graces us with a nine-game slate.
As the nightcap, we get what is bound to be an intoxicating (read: uninspiring) matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns (10:00 p.m. ET, NBATV).
But even though neither team is yet to hit the 20-win mark, bettors should be interested in this game — or at least the players in this game.
Suns guard Devin Booker in particular has caught my eye.
His assists prop looks incredibly exploitable. Although it has been set at 6.5, we have him projected for 9.4 assists in the FantasyLabs Props Tool.
In other words: Stop reading this article and go bet the over right now.
Why are we expecting so many assists? For the season, Booker has averaged 6.8 assists on 35.5 minutes per game, so his prop isn't out of line with his past performance.
But in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, we're projecting Booker for 40.5 minutes. With that extra playing time, he should have plenty of dime-dropping opportunities.
For reference: Over his past 10 games, Booker has averaged 7.5 assists on 38.7 minutes per game.
At 6.5, I'd bet the over all the way down to -175. At -135, I'd bet the over to 7.5.
The Pick: Over 6.5 (-132)
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
