Home teams have taken care of business thus far in the Eastern Conference Finals, leading us into a Raptors-Bucks Game 5 with the series tied at two games apiece. According to oddsmakers, that trend has a good chance of continuing tonight, as the Bucks are favored by seven points around the betting market.
The associated moneyline of around -300 gives Milwaukee an implied 75% chance of taking a 3-2 series lead.
The question, at least for bettors, is how to approach that 7-point spread and the accompanying 215.5-point total. We can start by looking at how sharps have already helped shape both numbers.
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Of the two, the over/under seems to have drawn a lot more agreement from sharps. It opened at a consensus 219, and has made its way down to the current 215.5 listing despite essentially even betting.
That should serve as a pretty strong indication that something's up.
For starters, the 51% of bettors on the under have generated 61% of actual money being wagered on the total. That creates some liability for sportsbooks, but relatively speaking, it's probably not enough to cause a 3.5-point line move on its own.
What it does show, however, is that the under is drawing bigger bets. And who are the bettors who tend to make those heavy wagers? Sharps.
On top of the bet vs. money discrepancy, Sports Insights Bet Signals also triggered a steam move on the under at 217. Steam refers to a heavy dose of action hitting the same side of a bet across the market over a short period of time, and is a strong indicator of sharp action.
As for the spread, the professional action has been far more quiet. As a slight contrarian side (44% of bets), the Raptors seem to be the only team sharps have expressed any interest in so far, and we did track one steam move that briefly brought their spread down to +6.5.
Now that the opportunity to grab a +7 is presenting itself again, it wouldn't come as too much of a shock if more smart money trickled in on the dog. Our Line Prediction Tool is even projecting a 90% chance that the next move will be back to 6.5.
Stay up to date with all of the line moves until tipoff with our NBA live odds page, or by checking the Action Network App.
