For the third time in the 2019 NBA Finals, bettors get the opportunity to take the Golden State Warriors coming off a loss.
After their Game 1 loss in Toronto, the Warriors bounced back and took Game 2 on the road — their 20th consecutive playoff series with at least one straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) road win.
After Golden State's Game 3 loss, the Warriors tumbled at home against in Game 4. So what can we expect from the champs on the road in Game 5?
The Big Picture
Overall, the Warriors have played 25 playoff games after losing their previous game — also a playoff game. Golden State is 17-8 SU and 14-11 ATS after a playoff loss, beating its opponents by 9 points per game (ppg).
What really shows up for Golden State after a loss is its stellar defense. The Warriors are allowing only 100.1 ppg in the 25 games after a loss in the playoffs.
In the other 78 playoff games under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are allowing 104 ppg.
On The Road Again…
The Warriors have played 15 games on the road after a playoff loss and they are 9-6 straight up and against the spread, winning by 6.6 points per game.
The good news for Golden State is it has played six road games off of a double-digit loss under Kerr and it is 4-2 SU and ATS.
First-Half Value?
The Warriors are 14-9-2 (60.9%) SU on the first-half moneyline and 14-10-1 (58.3%) against the first-half spread after a loss in the playoffs.
Where the real value shows up is when the Warriors are attempting to avenge a loss at home. In Game 3 at Oracle Arena, the Raptors became just the second team to beat the Warriors in their first home playoff game of a series.
Under Kerr, the Warriors are 10-1-1 (90.9%) against the first-half spread and 11-1 SU on the first-half moneyline in the playoffs at home after losing their previous game, beating their opponents by 7 points per game.
The Spread Story
The Warriors opened as 3-point underdogs in Game 5 against the Raptors. The line has been bet down to +1 as of Monday evening.
Golden State has played just 5 of its 25 games after a loss as an underdog and the Warriors are 2-3 SU and ATS in those games, but they are 2-1 in the NBA Finals in that spot.
More importantly — when the Warriors are coming off a loss and the spread moves in their direction (+3 to +1), they are 8-2 straight up and against the spread, covering the number by 9.3 points per game.
