The Houston Rockets (32-14) and Memphis Grizzlies (31-16) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Grizzlies are 5-point favorites over the Rockets on the spread (Grizzlies -5), with the over/under set at 236.5 total points. Memphis is a -205 favorite to win outright, while Houston is +170 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Rockets vs. Grizzlies predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, January 30.
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Picks
Spread
This is a prime spot to back the Grizzlies as they look to rebound from a 37-point loss to the Knicks. Thus, I recommend laying the 4.5 points at -115.
Moneyline
Although the moneyline may offer some value at -205, a better option might be to include it as part of our same game parlay, considering ESPN Bet is trading it at -195.
Over/Under
Since I'm conflicted on the total, I prefer to pass on the current number. My model has a projection of 235.5, but Grizzlies' games tend to breeze past these totals, even when they open as high as 236.5.
The total is 7-2 to the Over this season when Memphis has an opening total of 236.5 or more and then closed at a higher number.
My Pick: Grizzlies -4.5 (-120)
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 236.5 -110 / -110 | +170 |
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 236.5 -110 / -110 | -205 |
- Rockets vs. Grizzlies spread: Grizzlies -5
- Rockets vs. Grizzlies over/under: 236.5 total points
- Rockets vs. Grizzlies moneyline: Rockets +170, Grizzlies -205
- Rockets vs. Grizzlies best bet: Grizzlies -4.5 (-120)
My Grizzlies vs. Rockets best bet is on Memphis to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Houston Rockets vs. Memphis Grizzlies NBA Preview
The Grizzlies will have had two days between games to regroup after their embarrassing 37-point loss to the Knicks. Memphis committed a whopping 26 turnovers, which resulted in 36 points for New York.
Turnovers have been an issue for the Grizzlies the entire season, as they have the second-highest rate with 16.9 per game.
However, high turnovers are seemingly part and parcel of this Memphis team due to the breakneck speed it tends to play. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies lead the league in pace with an average of 104.74 possessions.
The Grizzlies are comfortable operating within a level of chaos, a strategy that has propelled Memphis to a 31-16 record, the third-best record in the Western Conference.
While the Grizzlies' blistering pace can be mesmerizing, one can easily overlook that they're still a very sound defensive team, ranking seventh in efficiency with a 110.5 rating.
Thus, the Grizzlies probably still have another gear they can reach defensively, and it wouldn't surprise me if we see them ratchet up even more pressure with the Rockets coming to town.
Thursday's matchup will be the fourth and final regular-season contest between the two teams and Houston has won the previous three meetings.
This is a fascinating matchup because we've seen the Rockets win all three games in more of a high-scoring affair, which traditionally is a style that's more likely to favor Memphis. Turnovers again played a significant role in those losses, and the Rockets showed aggressiveness from the perimeter, which hasn't quite been part of their DNA this season.
By no means am I trying to discredit those victories. The reality is they're just a bit uncharacteristic of how the Rockets have won the majority of their games. My power ratings still have the Grizzlies ahead of the Rockets, and I expect Memphis to be extremely motivated to try and avoid the season sweep.
When you couple this triple-revenge spot with the fact that favorites laying five or fewer points with a win percentage of .650 or higher off a loss of 37 or more points are a perfect 5-0 against the spread, you have to like Grizzlies' chances at home coming off two days of rest.
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Best Bets, Predictions
While I like Memphis to cover the spread, my same game parlay will feature the Grizzlies on the moneyline and two Rockets player props to boost our odds to +275.
Rockets' shooting guard Jalen Green is coming off a seven-rebound performance against the Hawks. It was a busy night for Green on the glass, who averages 4.33 boards with a median of four on the year.
Any time a player somewhat outperforms his overall numbers, it's generally a good time to consider fading him in the next game. Green's rebounding prop is available at 4.5, and he has stayed under that number in seven straight games against opposing defenses ranked top-10 in rebounds allowed.
Since the Grizzlies fit that criterion of a top-10 team in rebounds allowed, there's a decent chance we'll see some regression to the mean.
Fred VanVleet is another player I'll look to fade, given his prop to record a block at 0.5. While we'll have to pay some juice at -155, this prop still holds a lot of value.
VanVleet has failed to register a block in 29 of 43 games this season. We can also use those season numbers to suggest that there's a 67% implied probability (29 of 43) that VanVleet fails to block a shot.
If we convert that probability into a moneyline, it should be closer to -203, yet we only have to pay -155 for essentially a yes/no wager. Therefore, we still have value at the current price, making this VanVleet prop a useful addition to our same game parlay for tonight.
Best Bet: Grizzlies -4.5
Grizzlies vs. Rockets Parlay Picks
- Grizzlies ML (-205)
- Jalen Green Under 4.5 Rebounds (-135)
- Fred VanVleet Under 0.5 Blocks (-155)
Parlay Payout: +275
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Betting Trends
