Rockets vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks for Tuesday, Feb. 27
Here's everything you need to know about Rockets vs. Thunder on Tuesday, Feb. 27 — our expert prediction and betting picks for tonight.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are on an absolute roll and have won five straight. Now, they'll look to improve to 24-6 at home this season against a Rockets team that has won just five times in 27 games away from Houston.
Let's get to our Rockets vs. Thunder prediction and pick.
Rockets vs. Thunder Prediction
Pick: Thunder -10 (-110)
Rockets Betting Outlook
The Rockets have begun to backslide, losing seven of their past nine games and falling 4.5 games back of the Warriors for the final spot in the play-in tournament. The Rockets will need to begin the climb back in the first of three road games — a tall task given they're just 5-22 straight up away from home and 7-15-1 against the spread as road underdogs.
This defense, which has carried Houston to some impressive performances at times over the course of the season, has begun to slip with an efficiency rating just below 115 in February. Houston is 12th in the NBA against the 3 this month, allowing 37.2% to fall, according to Cleaning the Glass, which is a far cry from its league-leading 35.1% 3-point defense for the season. Its defense at the rim has remained consistent, dropping by just around one percentage point, but the transition defense has absolutely cratered in February.
Offensively, things have actually gotten a bit worse since the return of Fred VanVleet a few games ago, though the sample size is still small and comprised of three games against pretty solid defensive teams. Still, Oklahoma City is one of those, and last time out this team not only struggled mightily to score in a 12-point home loss against the Thunder, but allowed nearly 120 points per 100 possessions.
Thunder Betting Outlook
The Thunder are on the opposite end of the spectrum. They've grown by around three points per 100 possessions in February, somehow putting forth an even-stronger effort on offense than their third-ranked efficiency rating over the course of the season. Also, their numbers in transition have grown stronger and they've maintained the best ranking in the league when it comes to 3-point shooting.
This is an Oklahoma City defense that has been the best at the rim this season and very strong on the perimeter, and even with a slight drop-off overall on that side of the ball this month, it remains a strong group and its continued growth on offense is more than enough to make up for the marginal decrease in efficiency.
The Thunder are 17-7 against the spread as home favorites and have covered the spread as favorites in each of their past five victories, including by a comfortable seven points last time out in Houston. While they've been just fine on the road and have even shot the 3 better in those games, the Thunder are an incredibly tough team to play in Oklahoma City, where their Net Rating is a whopping 7.2 points higher per 100 possessions.
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Rockets vs. Thunder Picks, Odds
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 234.5 -110/-110 | +375 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 234.5 -110/-110 | -490 |
The Rockets simply haven't shown us anything to suggest they can compete in one of the toughest spots in basketball. The Thunder are an incredibly hard team to slow down on offense when they play at home, and this Rockets defense, which has held them up for most of the season, has taken a very noticeable step back in the past few weeks with a very steep drop in transition, which is of grave concern against a team which thrives in transition.
Houston shouldn't be able to get much work done from 3, an area of the floor it has favored, against one of the strongest 3-point defenses in the league, and Alperen Sengun should be incredibly limited against the top rim defense in the league.
I think we'll see a repeat of the game we saw on Sunday, where the Rockets struggled to get anything going on offense. Oklahoma City's offense only gets stronger at home, so this one has all the makings of a lopsided affair.
