The Houston Rockets (37-23) and Oklahoma City Thunder (49-11) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites over the Rockets on the spread (Thunder -9.5), with the over/under set at 228.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -425 favorite to win outright, while Houston is +330 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Rockets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Monday, March 3.
Rockets vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction
Spread
I have a slight lean toward the Rockets at +9.5. However, with my model projecting Houston should be +10.7 underdogs, there isn't enough of an edge to make this an official play.
Moneyline
As much as I'd like to take a shot with the Rockets on the moneyline, Fred VanVleet's injury absence is enough to keep me off the side.
Over/Under
Although we've seen a massive move on the over after opening at 220.5, my total projection of 229.7 points suggests there's still value at the current number of 228.5 at DraftKings.
My Pick: Over 228.5
Rockets vs. Thunder Odds
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 228.5 -110 / -110 | +330 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 228.5 -110 / -110 | -425 |
- Rockets vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -9.5
- Rockets vs. Thunder over/under: 228.5 total points
- Rockets vs. Thunder moneyline: Rockets +330, Thunder -425
- Rockets vs. Thunder best bet:Over 228.5 (-110)
Rockets vs. Thunder Preview
Oklahoma City seems to just score for fun these days. Over the Thunder's last six games, they lead the league in scoring with 133.0 points.
The pace has certainly picked up during that span, as OKC is averaging almost two more possessions (102.47) than throughout the season (100.63). Moreover, we're seeing the Thunder dial it up from the perimeter, shooting 41.4% from beyond the arc and average 17.3 3-pointers over this stretch.
When OKC is in this kind of a mood, it's difficult to picture any team succeeding in slowing it down.
The Thunder do a tremendous job of pushing the opposition further out to the 3-point line. And with OKC allowing a league-best 43.3 points inside the paint, opposing teams are almost forced to try and beat the Thunder from the perimeter.
Those numbers explain why despite having the best Defensive Rating at 105.8, OKC ranks in the bottom-third for 3-pointers allowed (38.7).
But if we continue focusing on this recent run, opponent 3-pointers have climbed to 43 per game, which is tied for the fourth-worst mark. Interestingly, opponents are also having more success from the perimeter, shooting 38% — up from their season average of 33.5%.
Considering that the Thunder has a 10.5-game lead in the Western Conference, perhaps it's somewhat expected to see a dip in standards.
With OKC essentially playing with house money at the money moment, it wouldn't surprise me if this free-flowing style of basketball continues for the duration of the regular season.
Rockets vs. Thunder Prediction
Much of the Thunder's success this season can be attributed to the stellar play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The three-time All-Star leads the league with 32.3 points per game and has a scoring prop of 30.5 for Monday's game.
It's worth noting that SGA has cleared this projection in five of his last six home games in addition to five of his previous six meetings against the Rockets.
His efficiency gives him a great chance to go over his prop, because his teammates know he rarely takes bad shots. SGA shoots 53.4% from the floor which is remarkable for a player who operates in the backcourt.
If we get a high-scoring game like my model suggests, look for SGA to do his share of filling out the score sheet.
Another Thunder player I'll target is Jalen Williams to exceed his rebounding prop of 4.5. Williams has covered this line in four straight home games and five straight meetings against the Rockets.
Williams has gone over 4.5 rebounds this season in 38 of 58 games for a 66% cover rate. Even with his odds slightly juiced to -135, the over is well worth a look in this spot.
Combining both props would boost our odds to +202 return on a same-game parlay.
Best Bet: Over 228.5 points (-110)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Points
- Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Rebounds
Parlay Payout: +202
Thunder vs. Rockets Betting Trends
