The Houston Rockets (1-2) and Golden State Warriors (2-1) will face off in Game 4 of their first round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Warriors are 4-point favorites over the Rockets on the spread (Warriors -4), with the over/under set at 202.5 total points. Golden State is a -175 favorite to win outright, while Houston is +145 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Rockets vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks on Monday, April 28.
Rockets vs. Warriors Picks, Prediction for Monday, April 28
Spread
The Rockets ran out of gas as the Warriors outscored them 58-44 in the second half to take a 2-1 series lead. A pelvic injury kept Golden State's Jimmy Butler on the sidelines, but the forward is currently questionable for Game 4 tonight.
If anything, it feels like the Warriors are trying to rush Butler back, and if he plays, he might be more of a decoy. As a result, a play on the Rockets' first half at +2.5 remains an intriguing option.
Moneyline
While I would lean towards the Rockets winning the game outright, you have to question whether they have enough maturity to pull out a difficult win in a playoff environment on the road.
Over/Under
It's difficult to consider anything other than the under in this spot. During these playoffs, under bettors are 21-15 (58.3%), and according to the KillerSports database, the under is a perfect 8-0 in Warriors' home playoff games when the total is 203 or fewer points.
My Pick: Rockets First Half Spread +2.5 (-120)
Rockets vs. Warriors Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 4
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 202.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 202.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
- Rockets vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -4
- Rockets vs. Warriors over/under: 202.5 total points
- Rockets vs. Warriors moneyline: Rockets +145, Warriors -175
- Rockets vs. Warriors best bet: Rockets 1H +2.5 (-120)
My Warriors vs. Rockets Game 4 best bet is on the Houston to cover the first half spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Rockets vs. Warriors Game 4 Preview
The Rockets won't find much satisfaction in their film session when they review the second half of Game 3. Houston struggled to contain Curry, who cooked up 21 points in the final 24 minutes. After the game, Rockets point guard Fred VanVleet felt his team might not have shown Curry the full respect that he deserves.
"He's one of the all-time greats," VanVleet said. "I think our coverages were a little slow, some of the switching and some of the physicality were a touch down from where we had it ramped up the previous game."
Houston has shown it can slow Curry down at times, but maintaining that level of defense for four quarters remains the biggest challenge.
Throughout the season, the Rockets have been one of the better first-half teams, as evidenced by a 47-38 (55.3%) mark against the spread. But as road underdogs, that number improves to 13-7 (65%). In comparison, the Warriors have the second-worst mark (15-28, 34.9%) at home in the first half.
These seven-game series between two competitive teams can often feel like a roller coaster ride. There's a lot of give-and-take as both sides look to make adjustments. I trust Rockets head coach Ime Udoka will have the full attention of his players and implement the necessary changes in the early stages of Game 4.
Defensively, the Rockets are often at their peak in the first half, but as the game slows down in the latter quarters, their offense can struggle in the half-court set against opposing teams that offer a bit more guile.
Rockets vs. Warriors Betting Predictions
I'll be kicking myself for not playing the under, given the trend I previously highlighted in Warriors home playoff games with a total of 203 points or fewer. Thus, my next challenge is finding a prop to pair with the under as part of my same-game parlay.
One prop that seems undervalued is Houston's Jabari Smith Jr. to record over 9.5 points and assists. Smith covered this number in 43 of 60 games (72%) this season while averaging 12.2 points and 1.1 assists.
On the road, Smith has also cleared this line in 10 straight games, which includes opponents like Oklahoma City, Orlando, Miami and Golden State. All four of those opponents ranked in the top 10 defensively, while Oklahoma City and Orlando finished first and second.
For an offense like Houston's that tends to get stagnant, Smith is a welcome addition off the bench. He also has the potential to fly under the radar as a player the Warriors might not have in their game plan as someone to try and stop.
Thus, 9.5 points and assists feel very attainable for a player looking to be aggressive from the moment they enter the game.
Rockets vs. Warriors Best Bet for Game 4
- Rockets 1H +2.5 (-120)
Rockets vs. Warriors Game 4 Parlay Picks
- Under 203
- Jabari Smith Jr. Over 9.5 Points + Assists
Parlay Payout: +300
Warriors vs. Rockets Betting Trends
