No Kawhi Leonard for yet another game means the onus of the Clippers' offensive attack will fall to Russell Westbrook.
In this role, Westbrook has performed admirably, averaging 33.5 points, eight assists, seven assists on 54% shooting in Leonard and George's absence this series.
But will that continue for Game 5 between the Clippers and Suns on Tuesday night?
Here's what our proprietary betting models say: there's an edge on Westbrook's player props at BetMGM. And the prognostication isn't particularly bullish about how he'll do tonight.
The models consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Russell Westbrook Player Prop Prediction, Projection
The algorithms are bearish on Westbrook's prospects against a star-laden Suns team — despite the Clippers' dependence on the former MVP offensively.
The models think Westbrook is ripe for regression, especially from three-point. A sub-30% three-point shooter since the 2019 season, Westbrook has shot about 41% this series, including 46% since becoming the Clippers' primary offense.
Westbrook is projected to put up 20.32 points on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, the best price on the market for that particular line is under 25.5 (-110) at BetMGM.
This pick has a roughly 10% betting edge. Essentially, you're receiving a 10% discount from the true fair value price of that line. Another way to think about it: the second you press submit on that wager, you'll be receiving 10% in expected value.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.
