Check out this post for updated season win total odds and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.
All odds as of Friday. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Sacramento Kings Win Total
The Case for the Over (37.5, PointsBet)
How are they getting worse? They won 39 last season with an expected win total of 38 — still above this mark.
They’re a team built around De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield, and both those guys are still getting better. Marvin Bagley was better than expected in his rookie season.
The Kings traded veteran leader Iman Shumpert at the deadline, and there was a cost in the locker room. But they’ve had a half season and a summer to build up their own internal leadership structure.
Harrison Barnes, Dewayne Dedmon, Trevor Ariza and Cory Joseph are all veterans who have been in winning environments. That nucleus is a good one to support the kiddos. Ariza didn’t help the Suns last year, but then again, God Hisownself could not have.
There are upside plays, too, with Harry Giles and Caleb Swanigan.
They have Fox as the key playmaker and shooters everywhere with Hield, Nemanja Bjelica and Bogdanovic.
Their schedule, for being in the West, isn’t bad. They’re 20th in strength of schedule in both December and January and just 17th in March. There’s a window here. They have 15 home games to 13 road games after the All-Star break.
The Kings may not be a playoff team, but they’re pretty close to it.
The Case for the Under (38.5, DraftKings)
There’s probably some regression due with the Kings. They were so much better than expected last season that it’s right to be a little suspicious of them repeating it.
I know it sounds crazy, but Willie Cauley-Stein was important. De’Aaron Fox had 151 assists to WCS last season. That’s 26% of his total to just WCS.
They replaced him with the much-less-explosive Dewayne Dedmon. I don’t know if Bagley and Dedmon can make up for that value specifically as pick-and-roll lob finishers.
The defense should be pretty shaky. Even with the veterans, there’s not a foundation that makes you think they can both contain on the edge and protect inside. The Kings were seventh lowest in total blocks last season. Dedmon may help the interior defense, but they lack a true rim-protector.
Given their respective track records, going from Dave Joerger to Luke Walton is probably a downgrade in coaching.
The Kings travel the second-most miles this season behind Utah. They can be good comparatively and still finish at 35-plus-ish with the under. The West is a bloodbath.
The Verdict
- The pick: Over 37.5
- Confidence: 6 out of 10
The Kings really had something last season, and faded late only after trading Shumpert.
The young guys will undoubtedly improve, the veterans will help prop them up and they have a great home-court environment. The playoffs are too high a bar (+325 to make the playoffs, per PointsBet), but 38 to 44 wins seems to cover the highest range of normalized outcomes.
