Check out this post for updated season win total odds and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.
All odds as of Friday. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
San Antonio Spurs Win Total
The Case for the Over (46, Circa)
Death. Taxes. Spurs.
San Antonio has hit the over on its win total in 11 of the past 14 seasons.
The Spurs are perennially underrated the way a lot of small market teams are. There's rarely any steam on them to carry them forward. This number has gone up big time from open; FanDuel and DraftKings had this all the way down at 44.5 months ago. That number put them much closer to a 10 confidence rating for me. Under 45 wins for the Spurs is just a silly idea.
Truth is, I don’t find much to love about this team’s upside, but they're quite simply a low-risk investment. The Spurs are so consistently in the 45-50 range that it’s clockwork.
The Spurs have been the best team at gaming the regular season in NBA history. They've won 80% of their games vs. teams under .500 over the past decade and went 26-15 last year in a “down year” vs. such teams.
That was without Dejounte Murray, who quite honestly might be their best player going into the season.
The Spurs will be good defensively. Their bench will be good again. And their young talent has real promise. LaMarcus Aldridge will give his usual consistent 20-8 performance to hold them up in production, as will DeMar DeRozan.
The Spurs are uninspiring to the imagination and beneficial to the wallet.
The Case for the Under (46.5, PointsBet)
I really can’t stress this enough: Their two best players (Aldridge and DeRozan) had negative on vs. off Net Ratings. That means the Spurs outperformed their opponents by more points per 100 possessions with those two on the bench than on the floor.
Not only that, but the Spurs had a -4.4 Net Rating with DeRozan on the court. They were legitimately not good with him out there. They were only a +1.5 with Aldridge on the court, and that was after a late-season surge.
They are not moving on from those two. The Spurs won most of their games because of their bench. That’s a concerning trend.
Their bench got worse after they lost Davis Bertans to make room for Marcus Morris, who then bolted on them to sign with the Knicks.
Take the name off the front of the jerseys and this looks like a mediocre team in a tough Western Conference.
All empires fall eventually.
The Verdict
- The pick: Over 46
- Confidence: 2 out of 10
Yeah, but you shouldn’t be betting against Rome falling until the hordes storm the gates, you know what I’m saying?
This team has just been too consistent. At 49.5? Sure, I’ll go for the under. I’d rather have gotten this at that 45.5 number back in July, and the number has sharpened to a point I’m not super enthusiastic about it, but if there’s a position, it’s the over.
Death. Taxes. Spurs.
