Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Saturday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s 10 games:
- New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics: 7 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trail Blazers: 10 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Pelicans F Brandon Ingram
THE PICK: Over 25.5 points (-120)
I’m all on in Ingram today. I think the overs on his assist and rebound props also hold value, but my favorite is the over on his scoring prop. The Celtics are a difficult matchup, but this line is simply too low given the Pelicans’ current injury situation. Ingram has played at least 38.1 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s averaged 30.8 points per game with with Jrue Holiday out of the lineup this season. The Pelicans are expected to be without Holiday, Derrick Favors, and J.J. Redick today, and Ingram has unsurprisingly seen a usage rate with all three players off the court this season.
Ingram is putting together an excellent season, and I expect it to continue today. I like the over up to -135.
76ers PF/C Al Horford
THE PICK: Over 3.5 assists (-122)
Al Horford has displayed increased upside as a distributor with Joel Embiid out of the lineup this season. He’s increased his assist rate by +2.9% in eight games without Embiid this season, resulting in an average of 4.3 assists per game. He’s done that despite averaging just 30.2 minutes of playing time, and he’s played at least 32.2 minutes in each of his past three contests.
I like the idea of targeting Horford with Embiid out of the lineup, and I like this prop up to -135.
Bucks SG Khris Middleton
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-134)
There is a lot to like about Middleton’s rebound prospects today. For starters, Middleton has increased his rebound production over his past nine games. He’s averaged 7.0 rebounds per game over that time frame, and he’s grabbed at least six boards in six of those contests.
This matchup vs. the Blazers is also a very good one. They rank just 27th in team rebound rate, so Middleton has more upside than usual.
Still, the most important thing to consider in this game is the spread. The Bucks’ starters have played very few minutes this season because they’ve played in a lot of blowouts, but they’re only favored by six-points vs. the Blazers. Middleton could definitely see a few additional minutes in this contest.
This prop is grading out as a 10 in the Player Prop tool, and I’d be willing to play it up to -150.
