The Indiana Pacers showed they're not willing to be a cute story this season, cashing in three first-rounders and a valuable contract in Bruce Brown (along with Jordan Nwora) in a trade with the Toronto Raptors for two-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA forward Pascal Siakam.
Indiana sent its own 2024 pick (top three protected), the worst of a pick from Oklahoma City, Houston, Utah, and the Clippers in 2024, and a top-4 protected Pacers pick in 2026 along with Brown and Nwora as the Raptors finally pull the bandaid off on the old regime and reconfigure around Scottie Barnes. (The Raptors also pick up a second-round pick and Kira Lewis from the Pelicans in a salary dump from New Orleans. That's technically two trades with the Pacers trading cash to the Pelicans and then rerouting those assets to Toronto in the Siakam deal.)
What does the trade mean for both teams and the betting market?
Pacers are stealth dangerous
Indiana started off the season as an offensive revelation. They immediately sprung to the top of the NBA offensive ranks, and surged through November to reach the In-Season Tournament Knockout stage, making it all the way to the final vs. the Lakers before their defense and physicality ran aground.
That defense was truly an issue. If the Pacers were not scoring 140, they were giving it up. With that kind of approach, they would be nothing more than a fun league pass team that wound up getting trounced in the first round against the "serious" Eastern Conference teams.
But in recent weeks, a funny thing happened; they started to actually defend. It started before Tyrese Haliburton's unfortunate injury and has carried through since. The Pacers are 11th in defensive rating in non-garbage time per CleaningTheGlass.com.
The addition of Siakam boosts that further. Siakam is 6-foot-8, 230 pounds and still supremely athletic at 29. He's capable of switching in pick and roll and can defend wings, forwards, and center. Particularly paired with Myles Turner, the Pacers have much better balance.
But that undersells Siakam's offensive contributions. Siakam is one of 20 players this season to average at least 22 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. He's an underrated playmaker, able to act as the hub in the center of the floor. Siakam and Haliburton will have a lot of different options on how to work together, and any player that can help Haliburton and not allow teams to throw aggressive double-teams at him (as the Lakers did in the IST Final) is valuable in its own right.
He's not a good floor spacer with a career 33% 3-point mark. But the Pacers are overflowing with options at shooter, and didn't have to include Buddy Hield in this deal.
(The Pacers also managed to avoid giving either Jarace Walker or Ben Sheppard, two players the Raptors coveted in trade talks, according to league sources.)
The Pacers leveled up. This may not make them a conference finals contender barring a huge upset run, but it moves them considerably closer, and significantly increases their chances of an upset over the top three in the Eastern conference: Celtics, Bucks, and Pacers.
Betting analysis for the Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton will likely miss too many games to qualify for MVP consideration, so despite that longshot bet gaining value, it's not worth even looking at. Team futures markets always overreact in the wake of a trade. It may take the Pacers a while to adjust to Siakam and they still need to get Haliburton back on the floor. There will be better spots to bet on the Pacers even if you think they can make a real run.
The Raptors give up the ghost
The ending of the Pascal Siakam era in Toronto was ugly. The Raptors essentially stopped believing in Siakam as the long-term future two seasons ago, involved him in every trade talk imaginable, and chose not to extend him, despite both his on-court performance and contributions to the 2019 title team.
Siakam was often subtly or not so subtly tabbed as the source of the team's problems through public comments and anonymous reports from the front office. Siakam had wanted to stay in Toronto, in part because of the extra money he would be afforded by such a deal, but Toronto came to the conclusion they didn't want to commit that money to Siakam, at least not at age 29.
Much of this move outside of whatever issues existed between the front office and Siakam has to do with resetting the roster alongside Scottie Barnes' timeline. The Raptors can keep Brown on a team-friendly deal or ship him back out for potentially another pick. They are reconfiguring the roster to line up with Barnes' prime over the next eight years.
Toronto gets a pick that will likely be between No. 19 and No. 25 from the Pacers, a pick that will likely be between No. 24 and No. 29 from the Clippers or Thunder, and a 2026 top-four protected pick. It gives them options to move further pieces.
League sources felt after the Siakam trade that Gary Trent Jr., who is 24 and looking for a big deal this summer, was likely the next player on his way out.
Is Toronto better with RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, with Brown if they keep him, than they were with OG Anunoby and Siakam? Not on paper, but there's an opportunity to outperform on a team level, or at least build momentum towards next season.
However, Toronto likely also has real incentive now to pivot towards draft equity and building for the future.
The Pacers added a multi-talented weapon next to their franchise point guard and made their defense better, in exchange for two bottom-10 first-round picks in what is considered an awful upcoming draft, and one protected pick later.
The Raptors can finally move on. Indiana increases their runway speed for liftoff, the Raptors come in for a landing to regroup around their young star. It's a win-win trade, regardless of the value of assets in and out.
