Spread Predictions For The NBA’s Reported Christmas Day Slate

Games! We have games!

The 2024-25 NBA schedule will come out next week according to league sources, and the Athletic's Shams Charania has the details on the NBA's Christmas Day slate.

Let's break it down. My projections should not be considered an expectation of where the market will open the game, but instead how I would look to bet it if the game were tomorrow.

San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks

Moore's Projected Line:Knicks -7

There was consternation about this matchup on X/Twitter but I think it's pretty brilliant scheduling. The NBA needed to put Wembanyama, who is shaping up to be the face of the league over the next decade-plus, on the Christmas slate. Putting him in the World's Most Famous Arena, MSG, for Christmas is perfect. You get the New York market with a popular and, for once, good team against the young uprising superstar.

If the Spurs are competitive this season? It's a battle of a young superstar against a contender. If they're not, it's still a young superstar in MSG and the Knicks get an easy win for the big fanbase.

The Spurs' defense has a chance to be absolutely elite with Wembanyama, and the Knicks are a little thinner in the frontcourt after the departure of Isaiah Hartenstein. New York has a seemingly infinite phalanx of wing defenders after adding Mikal Bridges, but the Spurs aren't overly reliant on it. Chris Paul vs. Jalen Brunson should be a fun matchup, even with CP3 in the twilight of his career.

Projecting the Spurs right now is almost impossible given how much internal growth could shape their performance and how differently they played after moving Wembanyama to center in the back half of the year. I'm a little lower on the Knicks than the current win total suggests for a power rating, so it's very possible this number pops higher. If healthy at Christmas with a higher line, I'd take the Spurs at anything above +8.5, and would look for New York at anything below -5.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks

Moore's Projected Line:Mavericks (-1.5)

A Western Conference Finals rematch with Luka Doncic vs. Anthony Edwards. It's easy to see why the league chose this particular showcase, even if the Mavs and Wolves don't have much of a rivalry to speak of.

I have the Wolves power rated ahead of Dallas which shouldn't surprise given their regular season records even after Dallas wiped the floor with Minnesota in the conference finals. The matchups still lean Dallas' way. There are questions about the fit of newcomers Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall and how that will impact Dallas' late-season identity as a defensive grit-grind team, but the talent upgrade is also significant.

Minnesota is largely unchanged from last season outside of swapping veteran point guards Monte Morris and Jordan McLaughlin for rookie Rob Dillingham. But if the Wolves are healthy, they will still be an elite, top-tier defense albeit one uniquely vulnerable to the Mavericks' pick and roll attack.

This would be Dallas or nothing for me; if the Wolves were favored with both teams healthy come Christmas week, I'd bet Dallas confidently. If Dallas is favored by more than 3.5 points, however, I'd probably stay away. My Mavs (-1.5) line is built on average home court (Dallas was a little low relative to league standard last season) and matchup neutral. I'd give Dallas two points on matchup advantage, but anything close to Mavs -4 would not be worth a bet.

Luka Doncic props, however, would be an excellent play given his matchup advantage and the sheer joy he takes from ripping Rudy Gobert to pieces.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics

Moore's Projected Line:Celtics -6

The league cannot get enough of this matchup. It makes sense: two large East Coast markets who are division rivals at the top of the contention rates with identifiable stars and a storied history in their rivalry.

Since 2019-20, Embiid is 11-15 against the Celtics including the playoffs and 9-7 against Boston in the regular season. He's 2-4 in the last two seasons. But he's honestly gotten better at the matchup, particularly as Al Horford has gotten older.

This line will almost definitely be shorter than I have it, and I'm going to be compelled to play Boston if both teams are healthy during Christmas week, even if I like the matchup for the Sixers. A large part this projection is homecourt. Often times these things do not carry over year to year but keep in mind Boston went 37-4 last season at home, with a 15.2 point differential and a whopping 4.7 ATS differential.

Projecting the Sixers is difficult; you have to balance out last year's numbers with how dominant they were with Embiid played vs. their dismal advanced figures when he was out. When he played, they were nearly as good as Boston, and they added Paul George who I believe is a huge upgrade for the things they need.

I want to bet Sixers in this game.

But this will likely land somewhere around -4.5 and Boston is so dominant overall that the market has a hard time accurately rating them in these types of matchups. If this comes in at least than two possessions, I'll play Boston, if the Celtics come in at anything outrageous like -7.5 (again, I don't think this happens), I'll come in on the Sixers.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors

Moore's Projected Line:Warriors (+1)

The NBA doesn't know how many more LeBron vs. Steph matchups they have left and they're not going to waste them. Two huge California teams with megastars that are known by casuals far and wide. This is an easy draw.

This is also a matchup of two teams from the play-in tournament last year and the Warriors didn't even make the playoffs last season. We should be a little honest that the NBA is forcing things here based on the vestiges of days gone by.

But it still should be fun.

My power ratings are a little unreasonably high on the Lakers and I might move them down across the course of preseason. It's also en vogue to suggest the Warriors will actually be better this season with Klay Thompson and Chris Paul gone after the additions of De'Anthony Melton and Buddy Hield, along with Kyle Anderson. They're definitely deeper.

But Golden State has shown real warts and decline the past two seasons. They had a better net rating and finished one game behind the Lakers last season. I have the Lakers higher built on their half-court success and when healthy, the Lakers win percentage was considerably better. Health is going to be a big factor with both of this pretty ancient squads, but if healthy, I believe the Lakers should be favored.

Golden State was -1.5 last season at home in a matchup vs. the Lakers, and that's about where I think this will open at. If that's the line come Christmas week with both teams healthy, I'll bet the Lakers on the ML. LeBron is 2-3 vs. the Warriors in the regular season the past two seasons, though he did eliminate Steph in the 2023 playoffs.

Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns

Moore's Projected Line:Suns (-2.5)

This probably should have featured the Oklahoma City Thunder, widely expected to be the 1-seed in the West again this season. But the NBA couldn't resist the draw of Nikola Jokic, 3-time MVP, vs. Kevin Durant and the Suns, a sneaky big-market squad with loads of talent.

These two teams have had multiple playoff battles and are well-acquainted. It's a good matchup with Jusuf Nurkic as a foil for Jokic. He plays well against Joker but always winds up in foul trouble. The Nuggets have defenders in Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon to throw at Durant and Devin Booker.

My projections are low on the Nuggets, especially after losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but they'll still be awesome as long as they're healthy with Jokic as the engine. The Suns were +1 at home last season when they were without Bradley Beal and Devin Booker. If healthy, they should be favored here. If the Suns are more than a two-possession favorite come Christmas, I'd have to take Joker, but this will be a very tricky game matchup wise.

The Suns came into Denver and beat the Nuggets late last season, a canary in the mine for the troubles that awaited Denver in the playoffs. But Michael Malone has consistently gotten the better of new Suns coach Mike Budenholzer. This will not be a heavy play either way and I expect the line to be within two points.