The San Antonio Spurs (23-28) and Boston Celtics (38-16) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Celtics are 8.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Celtics -8.5), with the over/under set at 233.5 total points. Boston is a -360 favorite to win outright, while San Antonio is +285 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Spurs vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, February 12.
Spurs vs. Celtics Picks, Prediction
Spread
Although the Celtics haven't performed particularly well at home against the spread, this matchup against the Spurs does suit their skill set.
Thus, there's a decent chance we'll see a double-digit victory, creating value on the Celtics' alternate spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Moneyline
The Celtics' moneyline could offer value as part of a same-game parlay. However, we might need to incorporate multiple legs to increase our chances of a decent return.
Over/Under
I would lean to the under. However, my simulation results are fairly even regarding where this game will finish in terms of the total.
My Pick: Celtics Alternate Spread -12.5 (+145)
Spurs vs. Celtics Odds
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -105 | 233.5 -110o / -110u | +285 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -115 | 233.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
- Spurs vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -8.5
- Spurs vs. Celtics over/under: 233.5 points
- Spurs vs. Celtics moneyline: Celtics -360, Spurs +285
- Spurs vs. Celtics best bet: Celtics ALT spread -12.5 (+145)
Spurs vs. Celtics Preview
I'm well aware of the Celtics' struggles against the spread (ATS) this season, considering they're just 22-31-1 (41.5%) overall. Their lack of success appears to have swayed the market as Boston moved from a -9.5-point favorite at the open to -8.5.
However, the results aren't exactly conclusive when the market moves against the Celtics as an opening favorite, laying 9.5 or more points.
Our Action Labs database shows that Boston is 5-6-1 (45.5%) ATS in this spot during the campaign.
If you look at their last three head-to-head meetings, the Celtics have dominated the Spurs, winning by an average of 31.3 points.
Although you might counter that Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama only played in two of those games, I contend that we're not quite there yet with the Spurs being able to mount a legitimate challenge as a contender.
After all, San Antonio (23-28) currently ranks 12th in the Western Conference, three games out of the final play-in spot.
While the Spurs should improve after adding De'Aaron Fox eight days before the trade deadline, they're still a work in progress.
"We're trying to develop that chemistry, trying to develop that two-man game…" Fox said following San Antonio's 131-121 victory over Washington. "It's a learning process. It's the (fourth) game for us, and we haven't had a true practice yet because we've been on the road."
San Antonio is 2-2 since Fox joined the team, posting wins against the Hawks and Wizards while losing to the Hornets and Magic.
The Celtics will easily be San Antonio's most formidable opponent on this road trip, ranking in the top five for offensive and defensive efficiency.
Although Fox is right to mention the importance of the two-man game with Wembanyama, the Spurs will need to offer a perimeter threat to have any chance in this game against the Celtics.
Since acquiring Fox, San Antonio's 3-point field goals have dropped slightly (13.9 to 13.5), while their attempts have taken a bigger hit from 39.5 to 36. And with Boston leading the league in 3-point field goals (17.7) and attempts (48.2), the Spurs could find it difficult to try and overcome such margins.
Spurs vs. Celtics Prediction
Since I'm swinging for the fences with the Celtics' ALT spread of -12.5, I'll exercise caution by only using their moneyline (-360) as part of my DraftKings same-game parlay.
After running the numbers, my simulation results remained evenly distributed regarding where this game will likely finish when considering the total.
One supporting argument for the over is that the Spurs' offensive rating (120.4) ranks ninth since adding Fox to the team. Before his arrival, they ranked 18th, scoring 111.9 points per 100 possessions.
Thus, there is a world where we see some of their offensive improvement on display against the Celtics.
One thing that bodes well for the Spurs is they often share the ball. They rank sixth in assists, averaging 28.9 per game, and have maintained a similar level (29.0 per game) even after bringing Fox on board.
Chris Paul is still an integral part of the Spurs' offense. While he's less aggressive when looking for his shot, he's still more than capable of creating opportunities for his teammates.
The veteran point guard has recorded at least six assists in 10 of his last 11 road games and his previous two meetings against the Spurs.
Paul has a good chance of racking up a handful of assists early in the game as the Spurs look to establish their rhythm.
Harrison Barnes is another one who could play a key role for the Spurs. His points, rebounds and assists prop is 15.5, which he has exceeded in 14 of his last 17 games and each of his previous two meetings against the Celtics.
Of the players who average at least three 3-pointers per game, Barnes has the highest perimeter percentage at 42.5%.
For the Spurs to stay within touching distance of the Celtics, the veteran forward will likely need to be aggressive from the perimeter.
I'll also look to isolate his rebounding prop of 3.5. Barnes has exceeded this number in seven straight road games and his two previous games against the Celtics.
Given what we've seen with Fox thus far, the Spurs' offense could do enough to make this a compelling game, even if they ultimately come up short.
Best Bet: Celtics ALT spread -12.5 (+145)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Celtics ML
- Chris Paul 6+ assists
- Harrison Barnes 16+ points + rebounds + assists
- Harrison Barnes 4+ rebounds
Parlay Payout: +310
Celtics vs. Spurs Betting Trends
