For two straight games it has been the same story in the Spurs-Nuggets first round series — at least in the over/under betting market. In both Games 3 and 4, sharp bettors brought some heavy action to the under which caused fairly significant line falls, and in each case the actual score sailed right on past the total.
But sharps are nothing if not stubborn.
An "over record" of 3-1 through the first four games of the series is far too small of a sample for wiseguys to change their approach, which means yes, once again they're finding value on the under.
In fact, the three straight overs have led to another opening number of 212 — tying the highest mark of the series — making the value on the under even greater in sharps' minds.
Seventy-two percent of bettors are following the trend of the past few games by taking the over, but this total is now down from its opener to a market-wide consensus of 211, with some spots taking another half-point dive to 210.5.
Part of the reason for that has been the bets vs. money discrepancy on the total. While only 28% of bets have landed on the under, they've generated 39% of actual money being wagered. That doesn't put a monetary liability on the under, but it does indicate that bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps — are banking on a low-scoring game.
Confirming that indication, four Sports Insights Bet Signals — triggered by market-wide movement as a result of sharp action — have landed on the under, coming at totals of 212 and 211.5. No such signals have hit the over.
