The San Antonio Spurs (2-1) and Phoenix Suns (2-1) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET from the Footprint Center in Phoenix. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Suns are 7.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Suns -7.5), with the over/under set at 226.5 total points.
Phoenix is a -325 favorite to win outright, while San Antonio is +260 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Spurs vs. Suns predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, December 3.
Spurs vs. Suns Prediction, Picks
Spread
Here's why this game is a pain in the ass to evaluate: A worse San Antonio Spurs team went into Phoenix and won twice in back-to-back games just last season.
On top of that, the Suns have dropped to 11-8, largely due to lingering issues, largely due to lingering issues they are dealing with heading into this contest. We'll touch that in the moneyline section. Ultimately, the spread is a pass for me. What should happen is Phoenix should cover. But I don't feel great about having a ticket I don't need there. We've detected sharp money on Phoenix while our model likes the Spurs. Our Matt Moore leads the Suns -7.5, so I'll pass that along.
Moneyline
Spurs or nothing spot. Here's the thing: Tyus Jones and Jeremy Sochan will be out for this. The Suns are missing Jusuf Nurkic. Bradley Beal is probable and likely to play, barring a setback. Beal playing isn't everything to me, but obviously, it will help the Suns attack the Spurs, who are now 13th in defense — a vast improvement from last year. Still, I don't want the heavily juiced Suns, and I don't like the Spurs enough to take the upset.
Over/Under
The total sits at 229.5 — I'm good. I'd rather hit up prop world. So let's do it.
My Pick: Chris Paul over 20.5 PRA
Spurs vs Suns NBA Odds
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | -325 |
- Spurs vs Suns spread: Suns -7.5
- Spurs vs Suns over/under: 226.5 points
- Spurs vs Suns moneyline: Suns -325, Spurs +260
- Spurs vs Suns best bet: Chris Paul over 20.5 PRA
Spurs vs. Suns NBA Preview
There are a few props I like this.
One, I trust Victor Wembanyama's volume. I don't love that someone who is 8-foot-12 wants to shoot as many threes as he does, I don't care how it makes me sound, but you have to put that aside. Wemby is shooting 12 threes per game over his last eight, and roughly one three every three minutes. He's shooting 43 percent from deep in that span, making five per game.
He has made four or more threes in seven of eight. But I'd rather play him at over 2.5 than 3.5 because he's gone 4-for-13 twice in his last five and 2-for-9 in another, so the efficiency may be reverting back a bit. But I'll trust the volume. I played him at -150 to make three threes on FanDuel. I'd play up to -165 ish.
Another prop I'll hit is Chris Paul over 20.5 PRA on DraftKings at -125. I don't mind going over 21.5, which is -105 on Fanatics. I'd probably stop there, though. CP3 is starting again and has hit this in six of 10. Also, Phoenix's defense is, again, pretty ass. And one of their only less ass defenders in Nurkic won't be playing. Phoenix is 22nd in defense and struggle at guarding the point of attack, which Paul should be able to exploit.
I like the Paul bet more, which means Wemby probably hits and CP3 gets to like 16 PRA. Last time, I liked KD's over 23.5 points and the Suns vs Warriors under, but liked KD more because, among other reasons, he hadn't shot 47 percent but once. Guess what? He had 21, he shot 7-for-20, 35 percent, and the under smashed. But that's gambling.
Spurs vs. Suns NBA Prediction
I probably won't parlay these because Wemby threes are heavily juiced on other books, and CP3 is up to 22.5 some places. But if you wanted to, do it on DraftKings, where you could get CP3 at over 20.5 and Wemby over 2.5 threes are at -168, as opposed to -200. CP3 over 20.5 PRA and Wemby to make three threes on DraftKings is +204.
Best Bet: Chris Paul over 20.5 PRA
Suns vs Spurs Betting Trends
