The defending champs have their backs against the wall for Game 3 vs. the Kings on Thursday night.
With Draymond Green out of the fray due to suspension, the defensive onus will fall on those ordinarily unneeded. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and company will have to switch like madmen and devote heightened intensity toward defense in Green's absence.
That doesn't mean Curry's offensive props don't have value, though.
For Game 3 between the Kings and Warriors from the Chase Center in San Francisco, the Action Network has a set of proprietary betting algorithms that project a betting edge on Curry's NBA player props.
The models consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more.
Stephen Curry Player Prop Predictions, Projections
The algorithms are confident that despite Curry's additional responsibilities — and the lack of distribution afforded by Green — the two-time MVP will produce at normal clips.
The models expect Curry to put up 38.03 points and rebounds. That's relative to a market-best line of o35.5 (-120) at BetMGM.
This pick has a roughly 10% betting edge. Essentially, you're receiving a 10% discount from the true fair value price of that line. Another way to think about it: the second you press submit on that wager, you'll be receiving 10% in expected value.
Do keep in mind that these betting models work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.
