Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Sunday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s five games:
- Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets: 8 p.m. ET
- Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns: 8 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Clippers PG Patrick Beverley
THE PICK: Over 3.5 assists (-121)
I’m typically skeptical about betting on players on the road in Denver. It has historically been one of the toughest venue for opposing players in the league. The Nuggets have been the fourth-best team against the spread since 2003 when playing at home (per BetLabs).
That said, this line seems too low given the injury to Paul George. Beverley is coming off nine assists in his last game with George out of the lineup, and he’s averaged 4.1 assists per 36 minutes in 12 games without George this season.
I think this prop holds value at the current number, but I wouldn’t bet it at more than -130.
Hornets PG Terry Rozier
THE PICK: Over 4.5 rebounds (-100)
Rozier has had an up-and-down season with the Hornets. He’s been overshadowed by Devonte’ Graham, but he’s had success as a rebounder for most of his career. He’s averaged 6.1 rebounds for 36 minutes, although his production is down a bit this year.
Still, this is an excellent spot vs. the Suns. They rank just 26th in team rebound rate, so Rozier should be able to find more success than usual.
This is the only prop bet with a Bet Quality of 10 in the Player Prop tool, and it’s my favorite of the day. I’d play the over up to -125.
