The Phoenix Suns (35-40) and Milwaukee Bucks (40-34) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wis. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
Let's get into my Suns vs. Bucks prediction and NBA picks.
The Bucks are favored by -6 on the spread, with the over/under set at 223.5. Milwaukee is a -238 favorite to win outright, while Phoenix is +195 to pull off the upset.
Suns vs Bucks Prediction, Picks
Spread
The Suns enter this contest on a three-game losing streak and will be without Kevin Durant (ankle). Phoenix is just 3-10 against the spread this season without Durant, and I expect the Bucks to jump out to a fast start and cover the first-half spread of -3.5.
Moneyline
Although I'd lean toward Milwaukee winning the game, the moneyline is slightly juiced, with -260 being the best available price. Since my model makes the Bucks closer to a -220 favorite, this is an easy pass for me.
Over/Under
We've seen a massive move on the over from 220.5 to 224.5. However, I believe there's still value at the current number, as my model projects a total closer to 228. Also, note that the over is 10-3 when Phoenix plays without Durant.
My Pick: Bucks 1H -3.5 (-120 at ESPN Bet)
Suns vs Bucks Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 223.5 -115o / -107u | +195 |
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 223.5 -115o / -107u | -238 |
- Suns vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -6
- Suns vs. Bucks over/under: 223.5 Total Points
- Suns vs. Bucks moneyline: Suns +195, Bucks -238
- Suns vs. Bucks best bet: Bucks 1H -3.5
Suns vs. Bucks Preview
The season is starting to spiral out of control for the Suns, who find themselves a game behind the Kings for the 10th and final play-in spot. Durant isn't due back until April 8 and, by that time, the Suns could be even further out of contention, given their challenging slate of upcoming games.
In addition to traveling to Milwaukee, Phoenix will visit Boston and New York before returning to Arizona for a three-game homestand against the Warriors, Thunder and Spurs.
The Suns will then wrap up the season on the road against the aforementioned Kings.
To put it all together, the Suns have the toughest remaining strength of schedule, according to Tankathon, with an opponent winning percentage of .607. Therefore, it would be almost understandable to expect Phoenix could feel dispirited heading into this final stretch.
Internally, there are all sorts of issues with the franchise's direction, as Durant will likely move to a new team over the summer. This super team on paper — consisting of Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal — hasn't worked out, and perhaps it's best to scrap the plans and start fresh.
As for Milwaukee, it's also missing a key player, as Damian Lillard remains sidelined with a blood clot in his right calf.
However, thanks to a much weaker conference in the East, the sixth-seeded Bucks should avoid the play-in tournament, with the Hawks trailing four games behind in the No. 7 spot.
Lillard has missed 16 games this season, yet the Bucks still managed to go 8-8 straight up and against the spread.
But as long as Milwaukee has Giannis Antetokounmpo on the court, it will still have a decent chance to perform well.
The Suns are just 3-7 against the first-half spread in their past 10 games and will now face a Bucks team that's won and covered the spread in seven of the previous 10 meetings in this series. These numbers should strengthen our case for a Milwaukee first-half cover.
Suns vs. Bucks Prediction
For my same-game parlay, I'd look to be a bit more conservative and combine the Bucks' first-half moneyline with a player prop. Unfortunately, that option isn't available at most sportsbooks, so I'll settle on the Bucks' moneyline for the full game.
The player prop that catches my eye is Suns center Nick Richards to exceed his points+rebounds projection of 17.5.
Richards has cleared this number in six straight games when facing opponents ranked in the bottom 10 defensively for rebounds allowed. Moreover, he has exceeded the line by a wide margin, averaging 25.33 points+rebounds with a median of 25.5.
The Suns often operate with a lineup of shooters around the perimeter, leaving Richards plenty of space to operate inside the paint. Given his positioning, he also doesn't face much competition when it comes to grabbing rebounds.
As a result, the Bucks' rebounding struggles make them a perfect matchup for Richards to exceed his points+rebounds prop, giving us a +180 return on a same-game parlay if combined with a Milwaukee victory.
Best Bet: Bucks 1H -3.5 (-120 at ESPN Bet)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Bucks ML
- Nick Richards over 17.5 Points and Rebounds.
Parlay Payout: +160
Bucks vs Suns Betting Trends
