The Phoenix Suns (7-1) visit the Dallas Mavericks (5-3) in the NBA this Friday, which is set to tip off at 7:30 p.m. from the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Suns are +2.5 point road underdogs against the Mavericks on the spread (Mavs -2.5) with the over/under currently at 232.5 points. The Mavs are consensus -140 favorites on the moneyline to win outright, while Phoenix is +115 to pull off the upset.
Let's dive into my Suns vs. Mavericks predictions and my NBA picks for Friday, November 8.
Suns vs. Mavericks Picks, Predictions
Moneyline
If you like Dallas, you might bypass the moneyline and hit them at -2.5, but if you worry about this game being as tight as projected, saving your ass with the moneyline could be worth it. The Suns, on the other hand, are slight 'dogs.
If you like Phoenix to cover, you could just take them to win at a better number than eating some return by betting them to cover a couple of points. If you think they'll keep it close, I think it's worth looking at the moneyline primarily.
Spread
The spread is probably right where it should be. The Suns, Thunder and Warriors are tied for first in the west at 7-1, but Phoenix has been primarily cleaning up at home, where they're 5-0. Dallas is 4-2 at home, as part of their 5-3 start, though they're only 3-3 against the spread.
Phoenix is 1-2 ATS on the road this year, only covering in a 125-119 win over the Clippers on November 1, where the Suns entered as -4.5-point favorites. They lost to the Lakers and beat the Clippers by only three beforehand, in their first two games of the young season.
Over/Under
Dallas has played to three overs and five unders in eight games. Phoenix is actually flipped, with five overs and three unders. I personally don't care to bet the total in this game.
Pick: Mavericks -2.5 (Lean)
Suns vs. Mavericks Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 232.5 -110 / -110 | +115 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 232.5 -110 / -110 | -140 |
- Suns vs. Mavericks Odds: Mavericks -2.5
- Suns vs. Mavericks Over/Under: 232.5 points
- Suns vs. Mavericks Moneyline: Suns -140, Mavericks +115
Suns vs. Mavericks Preview
I prefer the Mavs in this spot, but ultimately, Dallas is more of a lean. My preferred play is Luka Doncic to go over 31.5 points. He always destroys this team. He has scored 33 or more in nine straight games against Phoenix, not counting a 3-minute cameo that prematurely ended due to injury in January 2023. This run goes back to May 2022.
Suns vs. Mavericks Prediction
My lean for Dallas winning and covering the spread comes down to a combination of things. Dallas' home trends meeting Phoenix's road trends leans favorably toward the Mavs. I think there's leveling out to be done between the two teams, to some extent. Phoenix has been scorching hot, but mostly at home. They enter with a 6-game winning streak, five at the crib. They're in better form, no doubt.
Given that Dallas lost to Phoenix on October 26 and the Mavs have split two of four, Phoenix winning is far from outrageous. But the Mavs' three losses are easily explainable. They were on the road in Phoenix for the Suns home opener, they lost at home to Houston, who many were high on coming into the season, and the Pacers beat them in a get right spot two games ago, climbing back from a 2-4 start. In that game, Dallas was on the second of a back-to-back, and the Pacers had a two-day rest advantage.
Still, I'd rather play Doncic's over, and I'm okay with parlaying the Mavs to win and cover, but that would be — if anything — a very small play, given the chaotic nature of the regular season. And, with Dereck Lively, and PJ Washington out for Dallas, that could be a tough variable to overcome.
For now, I'm likely to only log Doncic's over in the Action App.
Best Bet: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points (-105)
Same Game Parlay (Lean): Doncic Over 31.5 Points, Mavericks -2.5 (+280)
Suns vs. Mavericks Starting Lineups
Suns Starting Lineup
PG: Tyus Jones
SG: Devin Booker
SF: Bradley Beal (Questionable)
PF: Kevin Durant
C: Jusuf Nurkic
Mavericks Starting Lineup
PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Kyrie Irving
SF: Klay Thompson
PF: Naji Marshall/Quentin Grimes
C: Daniel Gafford
Suns vs. Mavericks Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Friday, November 8 |
| Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | ESPN |
