The Phoenix Suns (25-23) and Oklahoma City Thunder (38-9) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 12-point favorites over the Suns on the spread, with the over/under set at 226 total points. Oklahoma is a -700 favorite to win outright, while Phoenix is +500 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Suns vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, February 5.
Suns vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction
Spread
The market has moved against the Thunder after they opened as a 13.5-point favorite. Oklahoma City is now as low as -11.5 at BetMGM. Despite having one of the best records (31-15-3) against the spread (ATS), Oklahoma City is just 3-4 ATS when bet down as a double-digit favorite. Still, the spread is a pass for me because I don't want anything to do with the Suns after they listed Kevin Durant as doubtful on the injury report.
Moneyline
The moneyline is another easy pass with the Thunder as high as -800 at ESPN Bet. With Phoenix just 1-9 straight up this season without Durant, I can't even recommend a little pizza money on the road 'dog in this spot.
Over/Under
The total might provide the best value given the slight move to the over. This market move highlights a very profitable angle for Thunder bettors this season.
My Pick: Over 225.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Suns vs Thunder Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 226.5 -110 / -110 | +500 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 226.5 -110 / -110 | -700 |
- Suns vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -12
- Suns vs. Thunder over/under: 226.5 points
- Suns vs. Thunder moneyline: Suns +500, Thunder -700
- Suns vs. Thunder best bet: Over 225.5 Total Points
Suns vs. Thunder Preview
Oklahoma City's games are starting to be a bit more high-scoring as the over is 7-2-1 in their past 10 contests. In a recent preview, I noted that Oklahoma City has upped the tempo during this latest stretch, increasing its average possessions from 100.34 to 101.05.
Moreover, Oklahoma City is also dialing up more perimeter shots, with its attempts per game increasing from 38 to 41 and its 3-point field goals improving from 13.5 to 15.
Interestingly, their defensive numbers have dropped slightly during that span, with the Thunder posting a 107.8 Rating compared to their season average of 103.9.
Although Monday's Bucks-Thunder matchup didn't finish over the total, I contend that the argument was still sound as the Thunder scored 125 points in the game. The Bucks were on the second leg of a back-to-back and released an injury report later in the day, ruling out multiple key players, including Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.8 PPG), Damian Lillard (25.0 PPG), Bobby Portis (13.4 PPG), Khris Middleton (12.6 PPG) and Brook Lopez (12.1 PPG).
Oklahoma City led by as many as 44 points in the contest, but clearly called off the dogs in the fourth quarter, scoring just nine points after registering 39, 39 and 38 in the first three periods.
The Suns have had plenty of experience playing without Durant this season, and with this 10-game sample size, the total is 8-2 to the over.
Lastly, according to our Action Labs database, the over is 7-3 this season in Thunder games bet up with an opening total of 224.5 or more. The over is currently on a 6-0 run.
Given the increased tempo and the Thunder's burgeoning perimeter threat, I like my chances of this game finishing over the total.
Suns vs. Thunder Prediction
Durant's potential absence could dramatically alter the game flow because if the Suns find themselves in a massive deficit, they could decide to pull their starters and send the reserves in. As a result, there might be less correlation for this game when you consider the outcome and player props.
As a result, I prefer to keep things simple with my Bet365 same-game parlay and pair the over with Isaiah Hartenstein to record at least one block (-210).
Hartenstein has exceeded his prop of 0.5 blocks in 13 of his past 14 games and in two previous meetings against the Suns. Even if this game results in a blowout, I'd still like Hartenstein's chances of registering a block early. Since we only need one rejection for this prop to cash, it's a good option to have in our pocket if we're looking for something less correlated to the outcome.
Combining Hartenstein's prop with the total would help boost our odds to +160.
Best Bet: Over 225.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Over 225.5 points
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 0.5 blocks
Parlay Payout: +160
Thunder vs Suns Betting Trends
