Suns vs. Timberwolves Game 2 Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 212.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 212.5 -110o / -110u | -154 |
Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves to a commanding 120-95 win over the Suns in Game 1 of this series on Saturday.
Can Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and the Suns earn a much needed road win in Game 2, or will the Timberwolves bully them again here?
Let’s analyze this one as I break down my Suns vs. Timberwolves Game 2 prediction and pick below.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns will need to be much tougher after being flat-out bullied in Game 1. They allowed the Timberwolves to rebound 40% of their misses (96th percentile) while they rebounded just 12.5% (zeroth percentile) of their shots, according to Cleaning the Glass. Phoenix must get better on the glass as it is nearly impossible to win a basketball game when your opponent attempts 13 more shots.
Another area they struggled with was turnovers as they turned the ball over on 17% of their possessions in Game 1, which led to 23 Timberwolves points off the Suns' 15 turnovers. The Suns need to take care of the ball and force this Wolves offense to beat them in the halfcourt.
The Suns will also need much more efficient games from both Booker and Grayson Allen here as both shot poorly from the field. Allen was a no-show as he missed all three of his 3-point attempts and played just 25 minutes in that game.
The bigger issue was Booker, who was just 5/16 from the field and overall not impactful enough, especially if he wants to be considered the best player on this team. Booker needs to be the leader of this team over Durant and find a way to bounce back here if the Suns want to pull off an upset.
The Halfcourt Offensive Rating disparity wasn’t massive in Game 1 as the Suns had a Halfcourt Offensive Rating of 90.4 (41st percentile) to the Timberwolves' 102.4 (81st percentile). If the Suns can simply take care of the ball a bit better and get some positive shooting regression, they should be in position to steal this road game.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves were physically dominant in Game 1 and showcased all the reasons they can still win this series despite initially entering as underdogs. They are truly a generational defensive team with the physicality to completely bully a much smaller Suns roster.
Rudy Gobert was dominant on the offensive glass with six offensive rebounds while adding 14 points and two assists. Karl-Anthony Towns was also very solid with 19 points on just nine shots, but Edwards was the highlight of the game.
He took over in the third quarter and completely dominated the Suns defense in the halfcourt. Edwards hit a lot of clutch, contested stepback jumpers, and whether or not he can repeat that level of efficiency will likely determine the outcome of this game.
The Timberwolves have all of the ingredients to continue to win, but it remains to be seen if they can continue to be this efficient in the halfcourt. Even though Edwards hit some big shots, it is easy to see that sometimes they get stagnant.
The Timberwolves shot 71% on long midrange shots (100th percentile) in Game 1, and relying on Edwards to consistently hit long contested stepbacks may not be sustainable. It might win you this series against a bad Suns defense, but it will not be a recipe for success against the Denver Nuggets in the next round.
Suns vs. Timberwolves
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's a strong case for the Suns offense positively regressing in this game while the Timberwolves offense may negatively regress.
The Timberwolves hit a plethora of tough contested shots while almost all of the loose balls off of rebounds went their way. The Suns also shot a horrific 42.9% at the rim, which ranks in the zeroth percentile. That is unbelievably bad and will inevitably improve in this game.
If the Suns can cut back on turnovers and force the Timberwolves to play in the halfcourt, they will have a good chance to pull off this upset. Trust the Suns to equalize this series heading back to Phoenix for Game 3.
