The Phoenix Suns (24-22) and Golden State Warriors (24-23) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Suns are 1.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Suns -1.5), with the over/under set at 229 total points. Phoenix is a -120 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is +100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Suns vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Friday, January 31.
Suns vs. Warriors Picks, Prediction
Spread
We're seeing a strong market move on the Suns after flipping from underdogs to favorites in this game. Phoenix has dominated this matchup over the last 10 meetings (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS), and I expect that trend to continue on Friday night.
Moneyline
The BetRivers moneyline on the Suns is too good to pass up at -118, which is a better price than laying -110 on the point spread.
Over/Under
The total is also on the move, up from 225.5 to 227.5. While I disagree with the market in this spot, it's worth noting that the over is 8-1 this season when teams are coming off a victory over OKC.
My Pick: Suns Moneyline (-120)
Suns vs. Warriors Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 229 -110 / -110 | -120 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 229 -110 / -110 | +100 |
- Suns vs. Warriors spread: Suns -1.5
- Suns vs. Warriors over/under: 229 total points
- Suns vs. Warriors moneyline: Warriors +100, Suns -120
- Suns vs. Warriors best bet: Suns ML (-120)
Suns vs. Warriors Preview
For all the issues the Suns have had over the last few seasons, beating the Warriors hasn't been one of them. While some of that success predates Kevin Durant's arrival in Phoenix, adding the two-time champion only helps strengthen the Suns' cause against his former team.
Since joining up with the Suns, Durant has been averaging 25.2 points, nine rebounds, and 3.6 assists against the Warriors. Even at 36, Durant is still putting up prolific numbers this season, as he's the sixth-leading scorer in the league with 27.3 per game.
Although Stephen Curry and Durant share the same age, the Golden State point guard might already be showing signs of slowing down, considering that his 22.3 points per game is his lowest output since the Warriors began their postseason run in the 2012-13 season.
One thing teams can expect when facing the Suns is that they'll make the defense work. Phoenix has the seventh-best Effective Field Goal Rate (55.6%), ranking even ahead of quality teams like the Celtics (eighth) and Thunder (10th).
If we turn to the Warriors, they're much further down in the category, ranking 21st.
Although Golden State recently performed exceptionally against the Thunder, the victory highlighted a potential flaw for OKC by being too reliant on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder point guard led all scorers with 52 points in a losing effort.
Phoenix is more likely to offer a balanced approach led by the triumvirate of Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Not having Jonathan Kuminga (ankle) could certainly impact the offense, while Draymond Green's (calf) absence would be a blow defensively.
Lastly, the euphoria of defeating the Thunder might not necessarily carry over into the Warriors' next game. According to our Action Labs database, teams are on a 0-5 ATS skid (1-4 SU) coming off a victory over OKC.
The Warriors might have won the previous contest against the Suns in late December, but they have yet to win successive games in this series over the last 10 meetings.
Suns vs. Warriors Prediction
One player who could play a massive part in a Suns victory is their backup guard, Grayson Allen. Allen has a points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop of 14.5, which falls below his season average (16.19) and median (15).
Moreover, when facing opponents ranked in the bottom 10 defensively for rebounds allowed to opposing guards, Allen has gone over 14.5 PRA in six of his last seven games.
The Warriors are a team that fits that criteria, and Allen has gone over this projection in three straight games against Golden State.
It's also worthwhile to point out that Allen missed the Suns' last game against the Warriors, resulting in a narrow 109-105 defeat.
I expect things to be relatively different this time. A Suns victory and Allen exceeding his PRA prop will help boost our same game parlay odds to +184.
Best Bet: Suns ML (-120)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Suns ML
- Grayson Allen Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Parlay Payout: +184
Warriors vs. Suns Betting Trends
