The Celtics Opened the Door for the Mavericks — Can Dallas Win Game 5?

Boston, I thought we were past this.

Now look, the Celtics are still going to win the 2024 NBA Finals.

And history suggests they're likely to cover Game 5, so this may be all for naught.

Our PJ Walsh notes that in the NBA playoffs, home favorites coming off double-digit losses are 149-112-5 (57.1%) against the spread since 2005.
And in NBA history, there have only been three instances in which a team down 3-0 in the Finals forced even a Game 6. The last (and only relatively recent one) was in 1996, where the Seattle SuperSonics, trailing the Chicago Bulls 3-0, won Game 4 by 21 and eventually pushed the series to six, where it ended 4-2.

What is true is that no team in NBA history with a 3-0 lead has never gotten the ass-whooping that Boston did in Game 4. The Mavericks won 122-84, and the 38-point margin is the third-biggest blowout in NBA Finals history behind the Bulls' 96-54 win over the Utah Jazz in 1998 and the Celtics' 131-92 win over the Los Angeles Lakers in 2008.

So we don't have a precedent in the Finals for this type of response. The Celtics, though, are 2-0 with a plus-33 point differential after losses in this postseason run, and both of the previous two were by double digits. They lost to the Miami Heat in Game 2 in Round 1 by 10, then responded with a 20-point victory. In Round 2, the Cleveland Cavaliers smacked the Celtics by 24, tying the series at 1-1. The Celtics clapped back with a 13-point win in Game 3.

Boston is 2-0 straight up and against the spread after losing by double digits this postseason. Both losses were at home, and the responses were on the road. The Celtics loss to Dallas is their only road loss of this postseason to date.

The Mavericks had six double-digit wins before this one during the playoffs. They beat the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 3 by 11, then lost by five, both at home. They beat them by 30 in Game 5 in LA, then beat them again in Game 6 by 13 in Dallas. In Game 1 of the following series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, they lost 117-95 on the road. Their lone double-digit win in that series was in OKC by 12 in Game 5, in which they won 117-116 in Game 6 to close them out. Their only double-digit playoff win in the Western Conference Finals was the closeout Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves on the road, winning by 21, followed up by a Game 1 107-89 loss in Boston.

Now, how much of what Dallas did in Game 4 will translate?

I've hated their offense for most of the series, but we can credit the Celtics for at least some of that. Boston is elite defensively, especially with Derrick White and Jrue Holiday in the backcourt. These two teams were tops in 3-point attempt rate in the NBA during the regular season, and the Mavs — or frankly anyone else — stand no chance if they can't stay close in the math battle beyond the arc.

It's Video Game Basketball, but that's what the Celtics play, and they're quite good at it. Here's your 3-point summation so far:

• Game 1:
  • Mavericks: 7-for-27 — 25.9%
  • Celtics: 16-for-42 — 38.1%
• Game 2:
  • Mavericks: 6-for-26 — 23.1%
  • Celtics: 10-for-39 — 25.6%
• Game 3:
  • Mavericks: 9-for-25 — 36%
  • Celtics: 17-for-46 — 37%
• Game 4:
  • Mavericks: 15-for-37 — 40.5%
  • Celtics: 14-for-41 — 34.1%

See the difference?

The Mavericks were outshot from distance by 15, 13 and 21 attempts before being within five in Game 4, which is where they hovered around all night. And they made plenty, which helps.

Defensively, they've quietly have been good this series. The Celtics haven't scored more than 107 points, which they've done multiple times in every other playoff series in this run.

The Mavericks played harder — desperate — in Game 4, forcing the Celtics into more isolations and less ball movement than we're used to, a.k.a., their old habits. They had a 90.7 offensive rating and a .450 effective field goal percentage — each their lowest of the entire playoffs.

And while the Mavs did finally have "their game," it wasn't a flawless performance. Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving played well but combined for just 50 of the team's 122 points and shot a combined 1-for-14 from 3. Do with this what you will because garbage time came early — as in, before the fourth quarter even began — but Dončić and Irving accounted for just 40.9% of the Mavs' points, their lowest of the series.

Can Dallas manufacture that hustle again? Will its stifling defense and general focus force Boston into uncomfortable spots on the offense? Will the Celtics get back to whipping the ball around the arc and actually making their 3s? Will this all be irrelevant because Game 5 is a smash the Celtics at home spot?

We'll conclude here for obvious reasons, but the biggest question looming is Kristaps Porziņģis' availability for Game 5. Porziņģis is considered day-to-day with a torn medial retinaculum and Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said he would be "available if necessary" for Game 4.

He was a gametime decision and ultimately did not play. To me, the Mavericks have a real shot at pushing this to six if Porziņģis is out or is clearly compromised — like OG Anunoby in Game 7 against the Pacers or Goran Dragic in the 2020 NBA Finals.

If Porziņģis is out, or heavily compromised, I like Dallas to cover the 6.5, and would take a shot at them to win straight up, which is +228 on Caesars.

The Celtics should close this in five, perhaps emphatically, but Game 4 was a stark reminder that they still haven't fully shaken their old demons yet — and that they probably need Porziņģis to do so.