Terry Rozier is a Miami Heat.
Or with the Miami Heat.
Or a Miami Heat player.
However you'd want to phrase it, the deal is done, and it's for Kyle Lowry and a future first round pick — a deal that both our Matt Moore and myself had been hearing rumblings about for a little while now.
Now that it's officially here, we can tackle the implications of said deal, and here, we will do so from a fantasy basketball perspective, and we'll do it notebook style, featuring notes on the key players affected in said deal, abscent of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo because, well, they'll be All-Star level regardless.
Absolute Winners
LaMelo Ball, PG
Charlotte Hornets
Ball becomes even more of a usage monster now. Rozier and his 27.2 usage leave while Ball's 33.2 usage may escalate. It's clear who runs Charlotte, and it was already, but even more so now. You just worry about a late year injury ending his season during these last few weeks up until the playoffs, but if you have LaMelo, he's going to be amazing to have in the immediate future.
Ball is averaging about 25-8-5 on 44/37/87 shooting. Maybe the efficiency drops a tad, but expect those eight assists to potentially elevate as others emerge in Rozier's abscence.
Brandon Miller, SG/SF
Charlotte Hornets
Miller takes the biggest step forward now. Miles Bridges is where he is, and maybe there's a bit of a bump there, but in terms of usage, look to the No. 2 overall pick.
Miller is averaging about 15-4-2 on 44/38/82 shooting and logging 30.5 minutes per contest. Bridges is already at 36, and Miller should ascend with more runway. Maybe the efficiency, from three especially, takes a slight dip, but the counting stats should blossom more down the stretch, and you're less worried about him being shut down since he isn't an established star. He's an immediate add if he's available in your league now that he shapes to be a definitive leading offensive weapon moving forward.
Reasons To Worry
Jaime Jaquez, SF
Miami Heat
Jaquez has proven that he will be integral going forward once he returns from a groin injury that shouldn't be long-term. But of course, the infusion of Rozier could lead to a hit in his production, which already took one as soon as Tyler Herro re-entered the lineup, but quickly recovered amid a Jimmy Butler setback.
Jaquez is at 16.4 points, 4.5 boards and 3.1 assists per game without Butler this season, and about the same without Tyler Herro. He will take advantage of the team being short-handed, but at full strength with Rozier being the opposite of Lowry, it's difficult to project Jaquez's statistical future, but I'd keep him for the time being if he were on my roster, because if nothing else, he will be a fixture. After all, he's been leading the NBA in fourth quarter minutes.
Tyler Herro, SG/PG
Miami Heat
Herro should take a hit, and I'd probably argue he should return to his sixth man role (which may actually help fantasy value), but I do think he can continue to get his numbers, just not as frequently. He just has to be off the ball more. Rozier is second in the NBA in pick-and-roll efficiency and his 30.3 assist percentage would lead the Heat by far — Butler leads at 21.0, Herro right behind.
Erik Spoelstra isn't stupid, Rozier will have the ball in his hands, as will Herro, as will Butler, as will Adebayo, and as will Jaquez. So Herro's team-high 29.2 usage should lower a tad, but it's hard to say definitively since I think he should be their sixth man, and they're still experimenting with him as a starter even though their five-year winning track record has never sustained itself with Herro in the starting five. Fantasy wise, he's difficult to project, just expect more of the same with less volume with a possible elevation in three-point efficiency.
Likely Losers
Duncan Robinson, SF
Miami Heat
The re-emergence was fun, but Robinson has been tailing off for over a month. He's down to 12-3-2 on 42/37/97 shooting, but you're only getting 1.6 free throw attempts per game anyway. He will play less, he will close less and he will be less impactful unless he enters the starting lineup to compliment Rozier, Butler and Adebayo with Herro returning to his previously successful sixth man role. For now, I wouldn't expect it, and even so, Robinson should have as many high-end fantasy outings moving forward.
The Terry Rozier Verdict
Rozier himself probably won't continue to average 23-7-4 on 46/36/85 shooting, though, it's possible that the efficiency remains as his usage drops. I think Rozier could see a utilization that mirrors Goran Dragic's peak Heat days, which was roughly a combo guard getting you 17-5-4 on 47/36/78. Heat fans won't allow you to say that he might be better than Dragic, but he's at least comparable, and in this modern NBA, I think he could get slightly above those titles, especially combined with the Heat's desperate need of the offensive punch Rozier will provide. But I don't expect him to do exactly what he had been doing in Charlotte, and from a basketball standpoint, he won't have to.
But from a fantasy standpoint, that could hurt a bit, unless of course, the team deals with yet another injury.
