After their game on November 25, the Atlanta Hawks sat at 8-7. Not a crazy start, but respectable in the East, and with a net rating of +3.1, the case could be made they were tracking for around a mid-to-high 40-wins pace. However, in their win over the Wizards that night (a 28-point win, nonetheless), they lost Jalen Johnson in the second quarter to a wrist injury that has sidelined him since.
The Hawks now sit at 11-15, with a 3-8 record (-4.7 net rating) in their 11 games since Johnson went down with his injury.
Obviously, not all of that is tied to Johnson. You’d be hard-pressed to find a player worth 21 wins to a team in a single NBA season (the 82-game equivalent in net rating delta in those first 15 games to the last 11), however, it seems abundantly clear that he was a massively key cog in Atlanta’s machine—one much more valuable than the typical betting spread adjustment for a player of his stature (solid starter) would appear to be.
The way the market typically moves is the 6-5-4-3-2-1 approach. All-timers get six points (think: Jokic). Non-GOAT MVPs get five points (think: Embiid). Perennial elite All-Stars get four points (think: Jayson Tatum). Most All-Stars get around three points (think: Paul George). This is very much a pyramid and not a rectangle, though—it drops off quickly, as you can already see. Most role players don’t even move the line even half a point.
However, what happens when those standard adjustments don’t fit for a player? It could be because the team scheme relies so heavily on their exact skill set; it could be because their backup is a much bigger drop-off than standard; or it could be that the player is just far more valuable than their name value would suggest. Regardless, there are players who are hiding in plain sight, for bettors to track on the injury report and pounce when they are out.
For each player on this squad, I have listed their Estimated Plus Minus from Dunks and Threes, along with their on-off stats from Cleaning the Glass, their backup, and their team record in games they have missed this season. Those were the main factors I considered when making this list.
Jalen Johnson triggered this thought, so he gets the naming rights, but there are seven other First Teamers (that’s right, we’re rolling eight deep on this First “Team”); four who the jury is still out on; and then two teams worth of honorable mentions we will note at the end.
The Jalen Johnson All-Stars
Atlanta Hawks
Jalen Johnson
(EPM: 77th percentile; CTG on/off: 79th; Backup: Saddiq Bey; Team record without: 3-8) — We’ll keep it brief with Johnson since we already touched on his case, but for him the biggest thing is the team is just worse when he’s off the court. Their true shooting drops over two percent; their overall shot quality drops; but really it’s their defense that craters, with the team giving up eight points more per 100 possessions when he’s off the court this season, per pbpstats.com.
The market has adjusted to treating the Hawks like a -2.0 net rating team, which is better than they have been without Johnson, but again, he’s good but he’s not worth 24 wins to the team. So the best way for bettors to approach this angle is moving forward. When he returns, look to potentially back the Hawks if the books give them only a marginal bump. Then if they are playing better and he misses time again down the line, it will likely be time to fade them again.
Derrick White
Boston Celtics
(EPM: 96th percentile; CTG on/off: 92nd; Backup: Payton Pritchard; Team record without: 1-2) — White is arguably my favorite player on this list right now. Because he plays on such a stacked team, he is not thought of as the best, second-best, or even third-best player on the team by basically anyone. However, in terms of impact this season, he has a case for being at least in that consideration. You’ll notice his incredible ranks by both EPM and on-off, and he has the highest BPM for any Celtic this season, as well. Two of the Celtics five losses this season have come in his three games missed, and White is definitively a player whose value the books (and even the market) are not fully encapsulating right now.
New Orleans Pelicans
Trey Murphy III
(EPM: 64th percentile; CTG on/off: 100th; Backup: Jordan Hawkins; Team record with: 5-1) — I honestly could have named this article after Murphy instead of Johnson. His on-off numbers are mind-melting, and since he has returned to the lineup, he has fully unlocked the Pelicans. They are 6-1 with a +8.0 net rating, which is made even more absurd given the fact that the one loss was a 44-point drubbing to the Lakers.
The Pelicans are a team that I am all over right now, as the market has them priced around a +2.5 net rating team, but as long as Murphy is in the lineup, I have that about two points higher. They also are yet to return Larry Nance Jr., the final piece of the health puzzle for them, and a player who has been on this list in seasons past. As always the big question with New Orleans is can they retain this health, but their ceiling (and floor) remain sky high if they can.
Phoenix Suns
Jusuf Nurkic
(EPM: 92nd percentile; CTG on/off: 95th; Backup: Drew Eubanks; Team record without: N/A) — It turns out, the Suns have had a Big Three this season! Despite Bradley Beal playing in just 151 minutes this season, Nurk has filled that role with aplomb. The surface level stats aren’t going to break your brain (12, 10, and 4) but the impact stats—top ten percentile in both—speak volumes. Now, a bit of that is getting to play a good chunk of his minutes with Durant and Booker, and another good chunk of that is the Suns terrible bench, that ranks in the bottom third of the league by net rating, but that’s kind of the point.
If Nurkic is out (he has yet to miss a game this season, so this is one to keep an eye on), Drew Eubanks would likely get the start at center, a notable drop-off from Nurk both in terms of the sneaky creation Nurkic brings to their offense, along with just the notable size that Nurkic has to give opposing centers trouble.
Portland Trail Blazers
Malcolm Brogdon
(EPM: 82nd percentile; CTG on/off: 73rd; Backup: Scoot Henderson; Team record without: 0-7) — Brogdon is one of those two-fold players, where not only is he likely underrated by name value compared to his actual impact on the court, the game plan also looks a lot different when he is missing. When he’s out, the plan is basically rookies galore. In Scoot Henderson and Skylar Mays, the Blazers have a pair of guards who have played less than 100 games combined taking the mantle over from Brogdon, a point guard so stable he is nicknamed The President.
The Blazers have yet to win a game with Brogdon out of the lineup, and while they haven’t been world beaters when he is there, they’re at least 6-12 with him there. Shaedon Sharpe struggles immensely with Brogdon off the court, and that encapsulates how the offense really stalls out without Brogdon. Per pbpstats.com, their points per 100 possessions drop by more than four when’s he’s off the court, and the defense gets a bit worse too. Having elder statesman stabilizers is massive for young teams and Brogdon is a prime example, and a player who will often be in and out of the lineup with injuries throughout the season, so there will be plenty of times to use this edge.
Chicago Bulls
Alex Caruso
(EPM: 88th percentile; CTG on/off: 39th; Backup: Jevon Carter; Team record without: 1-5) — This is the player I think the market for sure, if not the books, have sniffed out. I’ll quickly clarify what I mean with that differentiation. I noted the industry standard above, with someone like Jokic worth six points; Embiid five; Haliburton four; etc, etc. That’s typically the first move that books will make, but then the market itself will adjust off that too. Someone like LeBron James (who resides in our honorable mentions right now) is getting around four points to the spread right now, but the market typically adds a point or two even after the books shift the standard amount.
That’s been the case with Caruso. Thanks in part to his time in L.A. (along with, let’s admit it, other factors), he has a higher profile than most players in his presumed tier. However, it turns out, he actually is that valuable, and the market is moving off of his injury news, and it makes sense. The Bulls only win without him in the lineup this season is over Detroit, and does that even count as a win this season?! He has the best EPM on the team, and although his on-off numbers look rough, there’s a lot of noise there because of his changing role between starter and bench player.
Dallas Mavericks
Dereck Lively II
(EPM: 85th percentile; CTG on/off: 89th; Backup: Dwight Powell; Team record without: 0-3) — It’s incredibly rare to see a rookie here, and I was torn between actually giving him a spot versus putting him in TBD, but honestly the impact numbers have been no joke. He’s sporting +10.8 on-off rating per Cleaning the Glass (85th percentile); a +2.1 EPM (89th percentile); and the team has lost both games he missed. It’s just a much different plan of attack with Dwight Powell in the starting lineup instead.
Lively brings both the perfect lob threat for Luka on the offensive end, as well as an impressive defensive ability to protect the rim, especially for a rookie. Lively was out on Monday against the Nuggets, and while Denver is excellent and was favored to win, they cruised. If Lively is out for an extended period of time, it will be worth monitoring if the market adjusts, but I could well see fading Dallas for a bit here.
Memphis Grizzlies
Steven Adams
(2022-23 CTG on/off: 89th; Backup: Xavier Tillman; 2022-23 Team record without: 23-17; 2023-24 Team record without: 6-18) — We’ll end briefly with Adams since he has already missed this whole season and will continue to be out until 2024-25. But his was a name when it was announced (VERY late) before the season that he would be out, was a classic version of this trope. A player who would likely be weighted as a one-to-two win player, but whose impact was going to be much greater, especially when stacked with some of the other injuries and suspensions the Grizz were facing. It’s been a disaster in Memphis this season, and even with Morant due back tonight, I’m not so sure it’s going to turn around. Adams was absolutely essential on both ends for them, as his tip outs gave huge second-chance opportunities for a half-court offense that is very pedestrian.
To Be Determined Tier
Orlando Magic
Goga Bitadze
(EPM: 94th percentile; CTG on/off: 91st; Backup**: Mo Wagner; Team record without: N/A) — Goga is maybe the most interesting player on here. Basically a no-name before this season, he was barely in the Magic rotation before the season. However, when Wendell Carter Jr. went out with a broken left hand, Bitadze got thrust all the way into the starting lineup and has been an absolute revelation. By the fancy pants stats, he’s been one of the best players in the league. Clearly he’s not at this level, but I do really want to see how the Magic play when Carter Jr. comes back and see if between the rust of a broken hand for Wendell, and the potential drop from the level Goga has been bringing, if this magic team might make sense to fade for those first few games back for Carter Jr.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Isaiah Joe
(EPM: 81st percentile; CTG on/off: 99th; Backup: Aaron Wiggins; Team record without: N/A) — Your favorite podcaster’s favorite sixth man, Joe has already carved out a place for himself on NBA hipster Twitter. He hasn’t actually missed a game yet, plus there’s the fact that it's his first full season with OKC while coming off the bench for a super deep team, but I’m going to at least keep an eye on how the Thunder bench unit performs if Joe misses a few games this season.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Max Strus
(EPM: 82nd percentile; CTG on/off: 97th; Backup: Caris LeVert; Team record without: N/A) — The theme of this section is players who have not missed a game yet with their current team (or in Goga’s case, hasn’t missed one since becoming a starter), and that continues with Strus. The Cavs look shaky in general right now, but Strus has been excellent, filling that wing role that has so often been barren for the Cavs this season. However, he does have a natural backup in Caris LeVert (who doesn’t bring quite as much all-around but is better than a lot of the subs here), and there’s a bit of noise to Strus’ on-off numbers because of how bad the Cavs bench is.
Even still, I think the market might undersell Strus being out, potentially, especially if it comes when stacked on these other injuries haunting Cleveland right now.
Houston Rockets
Fred VanVleet
(EPM: 90th percentile; CTG on/off: 91st; Backup: Aaron Holiday; Team record without: N/A) — We’ll wrap up the final TBD with Freddy Two Vs, who—alongside head coach Ime Udoka—has done wonders in stabilizing the franchise in Houston this season. Yes, it has helped that Alperen Sengun (an honorable mention here) has taken a leap and that the Dillon Brooks Revenge Tour includes a comically career-high true shooting percentage.
But VanVleet is essential to keeping this offense on course. Without him, the offense gets initiated a lot more by Jalen Green, and we’ve seen how that went last season. Again, he has not missed a game this season, but if he’s out, I’m going to be eyeing a potential Rockets fade.
Honorable Mentions
Mark Williams (Hornets); Haywood Highsmith (Heat); Isaiah Stewart (Pistons); OG Anunoby (Raptors); Terry Rozier (Hornets); Myles Turner (Pacers); Alperen Sengun (Rockets); Brook Lopez (Bucks); De’Aaron Fox (Kings); LeBron James (Lakers)
