The Milwaukee Bucks (38-28) will host the Oklahoma City Thunder (55-12) in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 5.5-point road favorites over the Bucks on the spread (Thunder -5.5), with the over/under set at 232.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -205 favorite to win outright, while Milwaukee is +170 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Thunder vs. Bucks predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, March 16.
Thunder vs Bucks Prediction, Picks
Spread: After opening as a 3-point favorite, the market bet the Thunder up to -5.5. With my model projection making this line closer to -6, there's sufficient value on the visitors at the current number.
Moneyline: The moneyline is also worth considering, as our projection estimates it should be closer to -240. You can still find odds as low as -205 at Fanatics.
Over/Under: Finding an edge on the total could prove more difficult as my number of 231.75 is very close to the current market number of 232.5.
My Pick: Thunder -5.5
Thunder vs Bucks Odds, Spread, Total
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 232.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 232.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
- Thunder vs. Bucks spread: Thunder -5.5
- Thunder vs. Bucks over/under: 232.5 total points
- Thunder vs. Bucks moneyline: Thunder -205, Bucks +170
- Thunder vs. Bucks best bet: Thunder -5.5 (-110)
My Thunder vs. Bucks best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Fanatics. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks NBA Preview
The Thunder have the best defensive team in the league by a pretty good margin. Their 106.2 Defensive Rating is more than three points better than the Rockets, who rank second in that category. It's rare to see a team show such efficiency at defending the paint and the perimeter. And when you look at the Thunder's underlying stats, it's clear their success has more to do with hard work than any kind of luck.
For example, OKC leads the league in contested 3-point shots (19.1). In other words, it allows the eighth-most opponent 3-point attempts (38.8), and roughly half of them are heavily contested. It's also worth noting that opponents often have to turn to the 3-point shot perhaps more than they'd like because they're often in the unfortunate position of facing large deficits. Nonetheless, the Thunder still show a strong commitment to challenging those shots.
If we turn to points allowed inside the paint, OKC ranks first with 43.6. The combination of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein can be a solid deterrent for the opposition. Therefore, teams are left with having to take shots that are not only less efficient but also with a higher degree of difficulty.
While OKC will have to be at its absolute best to try to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo, you can almost envision a scenario where the Thunder would be content with the Bucks power forward having some success if it means the rest of his teammates struggle.
Such a game plan would make the most sense for the Thunder because, despite their defensive quality, they'll have to be more judicious in picking their battles against a Bucks team with a superstar of Antetokounmpo's caliber.
Although I'm confident the Thunder will cover the spread, I'll exercise a bit more caution by opting for their moneyline when building my same-game parlay. I'll also target some player props, highlighting both teams' defensive strengths.
Bucks forward Kyle Kuzma has a 3-point field goal prop of 1.5—a number he has failed to cover in eight of his last 10 games. Moreover, Kuzma has stayed under this projection in seven of his previous nine meetings when facing a top-10 defense for 3-pointers allowed.
We know OKC is the best team in this category, as Kuzma hasn't even registered a 3-point field goal in his last three games against the Thunder. With Kuzma shooting a career-worst 28% from beyond the arc this season, I'd expect more of the same struggles on Sunday night.
Lastly, I'll look to fade Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's points + assists prop of 41.5. The Thunder point guard has stayed under this number in 13 of his last 17 games away from home. Since Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 54 points + assists on Saturday night in Detroit, this is an excellent spot for a contrarian play with him being on short rest.
It's also worth mentioning that Gilgeous-Alexander has failed to clear this line in his last four games against a Bucks team that currently ranks 11th defensively. Combining these three legs would help boost our parlay odds to +315.
Thunder vs Bucks Betting Prediction
- Thunder -5.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Bucks Same Game Parlay
- Thunder Moneyline
- Kyle Kuzma Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 40.5 Points + Assists
Parlay Payout: +315
Bucks vs. Thunder Betting Trends
