The Oklahoma City Thunder (59-12) and Sacramento Kings (35-36) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Kings predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, March 25.
The Thunder are 10-point favorites over the Kings on the spread (Thunder -10), with the over/under set at 232 total points. Oklahoma City is a -440 favorite to win outright, while Sacramento is +340 to pull off the upset.
Thunder vs. Kings Prediction, Pick
Spread
This point spread is somewhat inflated as Sacramento is now as high as a 10-point underdog after opening at +7.5. However, the Kings are in a difficult scheduling spot on the second leg of a back-to-back, so I recommend laying the points with Oklahoma City.
Moneyline
While I can only look to the Thunder in this spot, there's little value in backing the visitors at odds of -400 or higher.
Over/Under
Although we've seen a massive total move from 226.5 to 232, I'd still lean to the over. This season, when the Kings are on short rest, the over is 9-5.
My Pick: Thunder -10 or better
Thunder vs Kings Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 232 -112o / -108u | -440 |
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 232 -112o / -108u | +340 |
- Thunder vs. Kings spread: Thunder -10
- Thunder vs. Kings over/under: 232 points
- Thunder vs. Kings moneyline: Thunder -440, Kings +340
- Thunder vs. Kings best bet:Thunder -10 (-110)
My Thunder vs. Kings best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Thunder vs. Kings Preview
We've had consecutive cashes in our NBA previews, with the Celtics' 113-95 victory over Sacramento resulting in +6.15 units over the past two days. Initially, I hesitated to back Boston ATS due to the uncertainty of Jaylen Brown's status. However, the Celtics forward got the green light and Boston won comfortably.
Many of the concerns I highlighted in that preview still hold for the Kings — they can really struggle against a good defensive team. While Sacramento ranks seventh in Offensive Efficiency (115.7), it's 17th in paint points (48.4), 20th in transition (14.5) and 24th in 3-point field goals (12.5).
As a result, the Kings are left with a ton of low-value shots, which become even tougher against better opponents.
Boston's a good defensive unit (ranked fifth), but Oklahoma City is even better, allowing a league-best 106.2 points per 100 possessions — 4.4 fewer than the Celtics. Additionally, the Kings will be on short rest.
Although Oklahoma City already won both meetings this season by 21 or more points, I don't believe this is a revenge spot for Sacramento.
The underlying numbers point to this being a bad matchup and it doesn't help that Sacramento is just 3-11 against the spread when on a back-to-back.
Sacramento is not a good defensive team (ranked 20th) and will likely struggle to control tempo without a true point guard. Oklahoma City ranks eighth in pace (100.61 possessions), with the two earlier games played even faster (101.7).
Therefore, if the Thunder can dictate tempo, there's a decent chance this game will swing overwhelmingly in their favor.
Thunder vs. Kings Prediction
While I like the Thunder to win and cover, I'll look to build my same-game parlay by targeting Sacramento's Domantas Sabonis.
The Kings forward has a scoring prop of 14.5 points — a number he's covered in 16 of his past 19 home games.
Sabonis scored 16 points against the Celtics to snap a six-game streak of 14 or fewer. However, it's worth noting that he played no more than 12 minutes in two of those games.
He's averaging 19.1 points this season and has gone over 14.5 in five of his past six meetings against the Thunder. This is a classic buy-low spot, and I expect we'll see some regression to the mean.
His 3-point prop of 0.5 is also intriguing as he's shooting 41.9% from the perimeter. He doesn't shoot many 3-pointers (2.3 per game), but hasn't hit from long range in six straight games. This current slump is his longest this season, and for a player who has made at least one 3-pointer in 39 of 59 games (66%), this skid will likely end sooner rather than later.
Best Bet:
- Thunder -10 or better
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Domantas Sabonis over 14.5 points
- Domantas Sabonis over 0.5 3-point field goals
Parlay Payout: +156
Kings vs Thunder Betting Trends
