Thunder vs. Magic Prediction, Pick for Tuesday, Feb. 13
Here's everything you need to know about Thunder vs. Magic on Tuesday, Feb. 13 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Orlando Magic will try to extend their winning streak to three games when they host Oklahoma City on Tuesday night. This will be the final regular-season meeting between the two teams after the Thunder held serve at home with a 112-100 victory in January.
OKC is coming off an impressive 127-113 victory over a Kings team that recently routed the reigning champion Nuggets, 135-106.
Generally, when the Thunder put up that many points, there tends to be a carryover effect for their next game. In this preview, I'll share why bettors should look to target the visitors as short favorites in this spot.
Let's get to our Thunder vs. Magic prediction and pick.
Thunder vs. Magic Prediction
Pick: Thunder -2.5 (-110)
Thunder Betting Outlook
There's certainly a bit of resilience with this Thunder team, as the victory over Sacramento meant OKC avoided a three-game losing streak for the sixth time this season. It feels like we've been waiting all season for OKC to hit a wall, but every time it's found a way to bounce back.
Per NBA.com, OKC remains one of two teams (Boston) currently in the top 10 for offensive and defensive efficiency.
Although the Thunder prefers a more uptempo style to the game, given that they rank 10th in pace, they're amenable enough should Orlando try to slow things down.
If OKC has fewer possessions, its efficiency could still make this a difficult matchup for the Magic. The Thunder can play the inside-outside game as well as anyone, ranking sixth in points inside the paint (53.1 per game) and third in 3-point percentage, shooting 39.3%.
The more you look at the underlying metrics, the more it becomes apparent how sound this Thunder team is. For a team tied for the third-youngest roster in the league, the future is certainly bright in Oklahoma City.
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Magic Betting Outlook
While some might point to Orlando's defense as the difference-maker this season, the reality is it's been building that foundation for some years. Last season, the Magic finished 17th in defensive efficiency and 16th in the 2021-22 campaign.
If you collectively assess Orlando's past three seasons, its defensive efficiency improved modestly by roughly two points. Interestingly, you could argue that defense around the league has actually gotten worse, which helps the Magic stand out even more.
And while the Magic's offensive efficiency has drastically improved from two seasons ago when they scored a league-worst 101.4 points per 100 possessions, I still don't think they have managed to keep pace with the rest of the league.
For example, Orlando is currently averaging 109.3 points per 100 possessions, and yet it still ranks 24th in efficiency. Even the worst offensive team in the NBA averages 104.2 points per 100 possessions, which is still roughly three points higher than Orlando's in the 2021-22 season.
The biggest weakness for Orlando offensively is that it's a poor perimeter-shooting team, ranking last in 3-point field goals with an average of 10.9. Thus, when you consider the frequency with which teams around the league shoot 3-pointers, Orlando doesn't leave itself much margin for error in these games.
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Thunder vs. Magic Pick, Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 223.5 -108 / -112 | -142 |
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 223.5 -108 / -112 | +120 |
Oklahoma City shot exceptionally well from beyond the arc (13-of-27, 48%) in its victory over Sacramento. We already know that OKC's been one of the best perimeter shooting teams based on its 3-point percentage.
According to our Action Labs database, Orlando is the most profitable team against the spread (ATS) at 35-18. However, when the Magic faces a team shooting 39% or higher from behind the 3-point line, it's just 1-4 ATS and 0-2 at when it's at home.
Lastly, OKC is 33-19-1 (63.5%) as a favorite when coming off a game where it scored 127 or more points. This season, that cover rate is up to 71.4% (10-4), and the Thunder have yet to lose consecutive games in this spot.
The data suggests this is a bad matchup for Orlando, and I'm in full agreement. Lay the short price with the Thunder on the road at -2.5.
Pick: Thunder -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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