The Oklahoma City Thunder (20-5) and Orlando Magic (17-11) face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from the Kia Center Arena in Orlando, Florida. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Thunder are 6.5-point favorites over the Magic on the spread (Thunder -6.5), with the over/under set at 212.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -260 favorite to win outright, while Orlando is +210 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Magic predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, December 19.
Thunder vs. Magic Picks, Prediction
Spread
I lean toward the Thunder covering the spread, but I wouldn't lay more than the six points most sportsbooks are offering. This number soared as high as -6.5 after opening at -4.5.
Moneyline
My Magic vs. Thunder best bet is on Oklahoma City moneyline, given this situational spot. BetMGM is offering OKC at -250, and the visitors are well worth a look, with Orlando missing two of its best players.
But as always, be sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Over/Under
This total is a pass for me. My model has a projection of 210.8, which doesn't offer enough of an edge to warrant a play in either direction.
My Pick: Thunder Moneyline (-250, BetMGM)
Thunder vs. Magic Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 212.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 212.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
- Thunder vs. Magic spread: Thunder -6.5
- Thunder vs. Magic over/under: 212.5 total points
- Thunder vs. Magic moneyline: Thunder -260, Magic +210
- Thunder vs. Magic best bet:Thunder ML (-250)
Thunder vs. Magic Preview
The Thunder will have to dust themselves off and go again following Tuesday's blowout defeat (97-81) to the underdog Bucks in the NBA Cup final. Although OKC felt like the sharp play all along, I was more concerned with the potential role the Thunder's lack of experience could play against a veteran Bucks team.
If anything, the loss could be a valuable lesson for OKC later in the season as it looks to compete for an NBA title. The good news is that there's still plenty of time for improvement, as we're only roughly a quarter of the way through the campaign.
Given its 20-5 record, you can expect that OKC doesn't have many back-to-back losses (one). Thus, this is one of those spots where backing the Thunder makes plenty of sense.
The Thunder and Magic are similar in that both teams are excellent defensively and rank in the top three for efficiency, according to NBA.com.
However, we see a considerable divergence on the offensive end of the floor, with OKC ranking eighth (115.2) in efficiency while Orlando is 25th (110.0). It certainly doesn't help that the Magic's best player, Paolo Banchero (29.0 PPG), has missed 23 games due to an oblique injury. While Banchero looks closer to returning to the court, he won't be available for Thursday's game.
To make matters worse, the Magic will also be without its second-leading scorer, Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG). When you take both stars out of the mix, Orlando has only two other players (Jalen Suggs and Moritz Wagner) averaging double figures.
Given its slower pace (ranked 27th), Orlando's offense can sometimes seem stagnant. The team struggles to create open looks for teammates (25th in assists) outside of isolation, making it difficult to see a path to victory against a Thunder team that's more than willing to engage in these defensive battles.
When you combine the Thunder's opportunity to bounce back from a loss with its recent dominance in this series—winning seven of the last 10 games, including the previous three meetings, OKC looks the likeliest of the two teams to emerge victorious.
Thunder vs. Magic Prediction
Since I've already made a case for the Thunder to win, there's a chance for an even better payout in the form of a same game parlay by combining the moneyline with a fade of two of Orlando's players.
The total suggests this won't be a high-scoring game, especially if the pace favors Orlando. As a result, I recommend targeting Suggs to stay under his points + assists prop of 25.5.
What's remarkable is that Suggs finished under this number in 78% (21 of 28) of his games this season. However, when you look at his performance against the top-10 defenses for points allowed, he has stayed under the number in 19 straight games, including his last three meetings against the Thunder.
It's not often that you find a trend this dominant, and with OKC being the best defensive team in the league, I think we have a great chance of this streak continuing for at least another game.
Wagner is Another Magic player who could struggle against the Thunder. I know he recently scored 32 points and had six rebounds against the Knicks, but there's no better time to fade him than when he's coming off such a big game. His performance feels more like an outlier, considering he's averaging 13.4 points and 5.3 rebounds on the year.
The last time he recorded 30 or more points + rebounds, he registered just 10 and six in his next game. Wagner has a prop of 21.5 points + rebounds against the Thunder, and when facing a top-10 defense in points allowed, he has stayed under that projection in 16 of his last 19 games. It's also worth noting that he failed to cover that number in his previous three meetings against OKC.
Both props involving Suggs and Wagner correlate nicely with a lower-scoring game, helping to boost our parlay odds to +270 when combined with a Thunder moneyline victory.
Best Bet: Thunder ML (-250)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Thunder Moneyline
- Jalen Suggs Under 25.5 Points + Assists
- Moritz Wagner Under 21.5 Points + Rebounds
Parlay Payout: +270, Caesars
Magic vs. Thunder Betting Trends
