Thunder vs Mavericks Picks & Prediction: NBA Series Preview
If the sportsbooks are right, Thunder vs. Mavs will be the best series of the second round.
Oklahoma City is the No. 1 seed and favored, around -120 to -125, to win the series at most books. Dallas is the underdog, but only slightly, near even odds and even -102 at FanDuel. Considering the Thunder have home-court advantage, the implication is that the Mavs are the slightly better team and would be favored in a neutral-court series.
The stars will be out. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic are two of the three MVP finalists. Kyrie Irving can drop 40 on any given night. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are stars in the making.
Let's dive in with a look at matchup advantages, my series best bet, how to bet series leader props and other angles. Be sure to check out my other series previews and picks as we add them.
When the Thunder Are on Offense
The young Thunder finished the regular season in the top four on both offense and defense. The offense was slightly better, but is more of a question in this matchup.
Oklahoma City led the league in points off turnovers with more than 20 points per game scored that way, but Dallas has the fourth-lowest turnover rate, so the Thunder may not get those easy, efficient points. The same could be true for OKC's usual free-throw advantage, since the Mavs typically don't foul a ton. The Thunder will probably still find an edge in fast-break points, but Dallas negates some of those usual easy, hidden points.
How much should we trust this Thunder offense?
Gilgeous-Alexander is a deserving MVP finalist, but has never had to carry the load in a playoff series of this magnitude — sorry to the Pelicans, though it's worth remembering Gilgeous-Alexander's Game 1 winner in an otherwise uncompetitive sweep. The Thunder are the youngest team left in the playoffs by a wide margin. Are Williams and Holmgren ready for the big time? Can Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort not get ignored or played off the court with their offensive limitations?
A few of the young Thunder players began to fade late in the regular season after a long, grinding year, but Oklahoma City will have played only four games in three weeks when this series tips off. Will the Thunder be rusty, or will that rest re-energize this young roster?
There are two big shot-making questions on this side of the ball that make things tricky to predict.
The Thunder shockingly led the league in 3-point percentage and shot well in the first round, but the Mavs' defense leapt from 26th in EFG before February 5 to third from that point forward, and looked the part against the Clippers. Is Dallas' defensive leap real, or is it buoyed by a Charmin-soft schedule? If Dallas' rim protection leap is real, that's a big concern for Gilgeous-Alexander's offense.
Oklahoma City could have a serious depth advantage. Dallas will be without Maxi Kleber, a key spacer and defender who gives the Mavs roster flexibility, and perhaps still without Tim Hardaway Jr., the only real bench scorer. Oklahoma City is very deep and has a ton of possible answers to potential Dallas questions.
The Thunder should also have a huge coaching edge.
Mark Daigneault is the deserving Coach of the Year and was terrific in the opening round, making little in-game adjustments and pulling the right strings to keep his team on the front foot. Jason Kidd may have just received a contract extension, but Daigneault looks like at least a top-10 coach at this point, and Kidd is bottom 10 — and 10 is being kind.
When the Mavericks Are on Offense
Everything about the Mavericks' offense is built around Doncic, and Dallas is effectively playing a similar version of Luka ball as the Rockets used to do with James Harden. That means tons of time on the ball for Doncic to create for himself and others, a barrage of 3s and efficient 2s.
For better and for worse, that puts the question of Dallas' offense firmly on Doncic's shoulders — and that question is perhaps a bit bigger than you'd think, given Doncic's ongoing knee sprain issues and his lack of efficiency in the first round.
I didn't have Doncic in the top 10 on my first-round Playoff MVP ladder. Doncic nearly averaged a 30-point triple-double, but was incredibly inefficient by his standards, and Irving's offense was far more valuable. The Thunder have a slew of nasty one-on-one defenders to throw at Doncic, guys like Dort, Williams and rookie Cason Wallace.
This will not be an easy series for Doncic. He's going to need to get his teammates involved and resist trying to win this on his own.
Irving was awesome in the regular season series, too. If I were the Thunder, I'd put my top defensive attention on Irving, not Doncic, count on Holmgren to handle things at the rim, and dare Doncic to beat me one-on-five.
Oklahoma City's defense is elite against 2-pointers, which should take away some of the easy looks Dallas typically generates and leave us with a metric ton of Mavs 3s. That's just the way the Mavs like it as they were top three in the regular season in 3-point attempts, but that's how Oklahoma City plays on defense too, ranking in the top five in most 3-point attempts allowed.
That could make this side of the series very unpredictable and extremely prone to shot variance. That could mean huge swings in each direction and could provide opportunities to live bet against Dallas if the shots fall early. Oklahoma City is terrific in the second half, especially in the third quarter.
Dallas doesn't typically rely much on offensive rebounds or free throws to generate offense, but both are areas the Mavs could excel in this series.
Oklahoma City ranks bottom quartile of the league in foul rate with its aggressive defense, and Dallas earned 33, 36 and 26 free-throw attempts in the three meaningful regular season matchups (ignoring the sham of a Game 82). The Thunder are an awful rebounding team, and Dallas ate on the glass against them. Its starting center, be it Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively, averaged 19.3 points and 13.3 boards, with 16 offensive rebounds in three games.
Best Bet: Split Between Thunder in 6 and Thunder in 7
This is a really tough series.
I have the Thunder a clear tier ahead of the Mavs, but Dallas has some real matchup advantages on the glass and at the line, and the 3-point variance could make this series quite unpredictable.
Books are right to price this series so close, and I think it goes long. Doncic has played in six playoff series and all but one have gone at least six games. His teams are 5-1 against the series spread.
This is a small bet for me, and I'll split my bet between Thunder in 6 (+650) and Thunder in 7 (+440). That gives us an implied +213 and an option to pivot or add to our portfolio later.
Oklahoma City is the better team with the better depth and a big coaching advantage. If an injured Doncic can be the best player in the series and upend things on his own, so be it.
Props & Other Angles
I won't bet too heavily against Doncic with a series pick yet, but fading Doncic props is my favorite way to attack the series.
If I'm right that Doncic isn't quite himself with that knee sprain and that he could have a tough matchup against a really good defense, that potentially means every series leader market is mispriced since Doncic is such a usage and production monster — and since he could even end up missing some time if the injury flares up further.
I'm attacking rebounds as my favorite bet of the series.
Doncic typically averages around nine boards a game, but had only seven in each of the past two Clippers games. That may not seem like much, but his rebounding chances dropped from 16.3 per game over the first four games to 10.0 in the final two. If his knee is bothering him, it makes sense to conserve a little energy and not go all out on the glass.
That leaves a few extra rebounds for his teammates, and I'm betting both Gafford (+1500, DraftKings) and Lively (+3300, ESPN BET) to lead the series in rebounding.
Those two gobbled up the missing Doncic rebounding chances in Games 5 and 6, and both have huge rebounding upside given the way Dallas can hound Oklahoma City on the offensive glass. Remember, the Mavs starting center averaged 19.3/13.3 in the season series, with 5.3 offensive rebounds a game.
Gafford averaged 16/11 in 23 MPG in three starts against the Thunder this year (once with Washington), and Lively had his career-high 16 boards against Oklahoma City in his one start. We get both at a combined +988. I like Lively better if you only bet one, given the long odds and the upside of additional minutes if Gafford's injuries flare up again.
I'll also play a half unit on Gilgeous-Alexander to lead the series in scoring. He's been over 30 PPG in two straight seasons and has a high, reliable floor, even if Doncic has the higher nightly ceiling. Doncic is the right favorite, but Gilgeous-Alexander is simply priced far too long at +400. I'd bet to at least +250, especially given Doncic's health concerns.
Last, but not least, we may finally have ourselves an overs series.
Both teams ranked top 10 in pace, and all three meaningful regular season matchups hit a pace of over 100. We got 245, 257 and 245 points in those games, an average of 249.3 PPG. Bring on the points.
