The Oklahoma City Thunder (44-9) and Minnesota Timberwolves (30-25) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread (Thunder -7.5), with the over/under set at 222 total points. Oklahoma City is a -305 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is +245 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, February 13.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Picks, Prediction
Spread
We've seen a huge market move on the visitors, with the OKC bet up from -5 to -7.5. However, while I agree with the move, I prefer to back the Thunder on the BetMGM first-half spread at -3.5.
Moneyline
I would be interested in all moneylines involving OKC, from the first half to the entire game.
Over/Under
Although the total won't be an official play, I have a slight lean to the over, given my model's projection of 222.3 points.
My Pick: Thunder First Half Spread -3.5
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 222 -110 / -110 | -305 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 222 -110 / -110 | +245 |
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves spread: Thunder -7.5
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves over/under: 222 total points
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves moneyline: Timberwolves +245, Thunder -305
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves best bet: Thunder 1H 3.5 (-115)
My Timberwolves vs. Thunder best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the first half spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Preview
I get why the market is wholly enamored with the Thunder. After all, they currently have the second-longest winning streak in the league at seven games while posting a 5-1-1 mark against the spread (ATS) during that span. And by the way, all seven of their victories were by double-digits.
As promising as those numbers sound, I can't ignore my power ratings, which make OKC a -5.19 road favorite at best.
However, perhaps the current spread does make some sense when you factor in the unavailability of Minnesota's Julius Randle (thigh) and Donte DiVincenzo (toe) due to injuries.
Both players combine to average 29.9 points, and the Timberwolves are 3-4 straight up and ATS without them this season.
Even with a healthy Randle and DiVincenzo, the Timberwolves were always likely to struggle to match the success of the previous campaign. Their decision to trade Karl-Anthony Towns felt like a seismic shift within the organization.
Randle and DiVincenzo are not necessarily bad players; they just can't compensate for Towns's individual intangibles.
If you look at their efficiency metrics, the Timberwolves have worsened offensively (114.6 to 113.8) and defensively (108.4 to 110.5) since making the trade. In contrast, the Knicks' Net Rating has improved from +4.9 to +6.1, with Towns joining their ranks.
Anthony Edwards has to do a lot of the heavy lifting following the trade, and with Randle sidelined, there's a considerable gap to find the Timberwolves' third-leading scorer.
Naz Reid's 14.2 points per game are almost half of Edwards's average (27.5), which indicates a real imbalance on this Minnesota team.
While it's clear that Edwards will dominate much of the ball in the second half of the Timberwolves' games, I'm not sure they have a clear plan on where the points will come from in the first half without Randle as a current option.
Minnesota is on a five-game skid at home against the first-half spread, while OKC is on a 4-1 1H ATS run on the road.
With the Timberwolves clearly showing signs of vulnerability, OKC looks more than capable of exploiting those weaknesses in the early frames.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction
After stating my interest in all things involving the Thunder moneylines, I put the thought into practice and set out to build a same-game parlay using those parameters.
Initially, I searched for a Thunder first-half/full-time moneyline prop, but found that many sportsbooks don't allow that option as part of a same-game parlay. However, Fanatics does allow its customers to add those options individually when putting together their parlays.
With the Timberwolves short-handed, I think it makes sense to double up on Thunder moneylines for the first half and the game.
I'll also add another leg to my parlay by fading Minnesota's Jaden McDaniels to stay under his points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop of 20.5. McDaniels has finished under this number in 15 of his last 17 games when facing a top-10 for assists allowed.
OKC certainly fits that criteria, ranking fourth in opponent assists with 24.1 allowed per game.
Moreover, McDaniels has stayed under 20.5 PRA in his last four meetings against the Thunder. The Timberwolves power forward only averages 1.7 assists and 9.5 field goal attempts while shooting 46.7% from the floor.
The lack of volume in his shooting makes him a great candidate to stay under his prop projection.
Adding McDaniels as our parlay's final piece helps boost our odds to +180.
Best Bet: Thunder 1H -3.5 (-115)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Thunder First Half Moneyline
- Thunder Moneyline
- Jaden McDaniels Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Parlay Payout: +180
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Trends
