The Oklahoma City Thunder (13-4) and Golden State Warriors (12-5) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 4-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Thunder -4), with the over/under set at 225.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -180 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is +150 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, November 27.
Thunder vs. Warriors Prediction, Pick
Spread
I'm backing the Thunder to get the job done as road favorites.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline as my best bet, but would lean toward the Thunder in a same game parlay scenario.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the over/under in this matchup.
My Pick: Thunder -4
Thunder vs. Warriors Odds, Line, Spread
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 225.5 -110 / -110 | -180 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 225.5 -110 / -110 | +150 |
- Thunder vs Warriors spread: Thunder -4
- Thunder vs Warriors over/under: 225.5 points
- Thunder vs Warriors moneyline: Thunder -180, Warriors +150
- Thunder vs Warriors best bet: Thunder -4
Thunder vs. Warriors NBA Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder head to the Bay Area to take on the Warriors in this matchup between the top two teams in the Western Conference.
The Thunder have the league's best Adjusted Net Rating (+8.1) and are led by an elite defense (106.6 – 1st). The Warriors rank seventh in Adjusted Net (+4.1) and the top 10 in offense and defense, per Dunks and Threes.
The Thunder just added Isaiah Hartenstein into the rotation after he returned from injury, and he was immediately impactful. Hartenstein is a +14.7 in 60 minutes and makes a difference on both sides of the floor. He has racked up 30 and 33 PRA in two games, averaging 16 points, 12 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. He's once again an offensive hub and an excellent pick-and-roll partner for SGA and Jalen Williams.
When these teams met earlier in the season, it was the game in which Chet Holmgren went down, so not only was Oklahoma City not completely prepared for that schematically, but it certainly is deflating to have that happen to your star Center.
Now, with Hartenstein, they can replicate much of what Chet provided, and it gives them some serious flexibility on both offense and defense.
One key to this game will be that the Warriors take and make more 3s than the Thunder do. The Warriors average 15.9 3s per game compared to 13.7 for the Thunder, and they shoot a much better percentage, 38.3%, compared to 35.7% for OKC, per Cleaning the Glass.
This was a significant issue for the Thunder in the prior matchup when the Warriors outscored them by 30 from beyond the arc. It creates a considerable math problem.
The Warriors' primary concern is that they have listed both Steph Curry (knees) and Jonathan Kuminga (illness) as Questionable for this game. Considering it is the day before Thanksgiving, and they do not play again until Saturday, it may not be surprising to see one or both of them sit out this game.
Thunder vs. Warriors Prediction
With Hartenstein in the lineup, the Thunder have a new tool to attack the interior while also helping to anchor the defense. I'm betting he exceeds 23.5 PRA (-130 MGM), a number he has blown by in both games this season.
While Oklahoma City will be without Alex Caruso, it still has many defensive options on the perimeter to give the Warriors some difficulty. The inclusion of Hartenstein has been seamless, and I expect OKC to be ready for this matchup.
I'll lay the points with the road favorite against a Warriors team that ran unreasonably hot from 3 the last time these two teams played.
For the SGP, I'll play the moneyline, Hartenstein 8+ Rebounds, and Shai 25+ Points, a number he has hit in 77% of wins this season.
Best Bet: Thunder -4 (-110)
Same Game Parlay: Thunder ML, Isaiah Hartenstein 8+ Rebounds, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ Points (+148)
