Thursday NBA Player Prop Betting Picks: Clint Capela, Reggie Bullock and Grayson Allen Lead Card

Well, that was more like it!

We hit two of our three props last night to get on the board for the season, and we did it in style with LaMelo Ball and Robert Williams smashing their overs. There's typically real value on some of these overs early in the season as the books haven't quite adjusted to new roles and are relying on last year's data, so we're going back to the well with three more overs tonight. Shooters gonna shoot.

For those who are new to this article, we'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I typically recommend almost exclusive 9s and 10s in this article, so you know you're getting some of the best available plays, but there are plenty more props to play in the tool.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

NBA Player Props & Picks

Reggie Bullock, over 1.5 threes (+125)

You know that great quotable scene between Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly on the classic comedy, Step Brothers? Reggie Bullock and Luka Doncic are about to become best friends.

Bullock is a new member of the Mavericks, and if history is any indication, his 3-point shooting results are about to explode. Just take a look at the last Knicks wing shooter who came to Dallas. Before Tim Hardaway Jr. came to Dallas, he was making one 3-pointer every 14.3 minutes and hitting 34% of them. Since then? He's draining one every 10.2 minutes at a dazzling 39%, one of the top shooters in the league.

So what changed? Luka.

Doncic is one of the greatest playmakers in the game, and he is magical at drawing the defense to himself and hitting his shooters in the pocket for rhythm 3s. And Reggie Bullock is about to have a lot of fun.

Bullock is already a pretty good shooter. It's literally what he's out there for. Even in Tom Thibodeau's outdated system, Bullock made a trey every 11.96 minutes last year, and he was around one every 12 minutes over the last three seasons, hitting 40%. Imagine what that will look like with Luka teeing him up.

Bullock played only one preseason game, but he got up five 3s in 14 minutes and made two of them. He made multiple 3s in 47 of 65 games last year with the Knicks, going over this line in 72% of his appearances.

We don't know what Bullock's role or minutes will look like yet in Dallas, and we know Jason Kidd doesn't exactly believe in 3s, but we only need a pair of 3s from an outstanding shooter and he's playing with Luka. So I have to like our chances here. I can't believe we're getting this at plus money. I'd play to -120.

Clint Capela, over 23.5 points + rebounds (+105)

Clint Capela quietly exploded last season for the Atlanta Hawks. He was a stealth Defensive Player of the Year candidate at one point, and he finished the season averaging 15.2 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. He then had a great playoff run all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Those 14.3 RPG led the entire NBA, and Capela was a rebounding monster. He had 15 or more rebounds in 30 games last season, a whopping 48% of his appearances. He actually went over this combo line on rebounds alone in a couple of his games.

The scoring was pretty good too, thanks to Trae Young. Capela is a huge vertical threat and a great dive man on the pick and roll, catching lobs for easy buckets from his talented point guard. He scored 15 or more points in 29 of his games last year, almost as often as he hit that rebounding total, and he cleared this combo line with just points 13 times.

With all that scoring and rebounding, that makes this combo prop a great play. Capela went over 23.5 points + rebounds in 46 of his 63 games last year, hitting this over 73% of the time. And though he went under in both Dallas games, that was mostly because of foul trouble.

Capela had five and four fouls in those games and that limited his minutes, but he's actually curbed his fouling tendencies — he had four or more fouls only eight times all year, and that was his only game with five. And with Onyeka Okongwu out for the Hawks, Capela may play even bigger minutes early.

As long as Capela doesn't get into quick foul trouble, he should smash this number. He averaged 29.5 points + rebounds last year. That's a full six points and rebounds above this line, and we are getting plus juice?!

Sign me up. I expect this number to be closer to 30 pretty soon.

Grayson Allen, over 9.5 points (-115)

I really liked the Grayson Allen pickup for Milwaukee this offseason, and we're already seeing why in the opener. The Bucks are missing Donte DiVincenzo for the foreseeable future, and Allen made his Milwaukee debut in DDV's spot in the starting lineup. That makes sense. Allen is a terrific shooter who fights hard on defense, similar to DiVincenzo.

And it sure looks like Allen will get his shots up in this offense. Allen attempted 10 3-pointers, already one of the 10 highest-volume games of his career, and he did that in only 28 minutes, thanks in part to a few garbage time minutes to close out the game with him on the bench.

That's one 3-point attempt every 2.8 minutes on the court, and while Allen probably won't keep up that frenetic rate forever, he did take one trey every 3.7 minutes in the preseason. And we know the man can shoot. He's made 38% of his 3s in the NBA and was a sharpshooter at Duke, too.

And remember the opponent. Miami's defense is built to allow opponent 3-point attempts. The Heat allowed the second most 3-point attempts in the league last season and the third most the year before that. Defenses can't take away everything, and this D is built to force the opponent to beat it with shooting. We saw what happened when those shots fall last year in the playoffs when the Bucks swept these Heat right out of the postseason.

I like Grayson's chances of getting up plenty of shots tonight. He scored 10 in the opener on an off-shooting night. DiVincenzo had double-digit points in 38 of his 66 games last year as the starting two-guard on this team, and Allen is a much better scorer.

Allen also had six dimes in his Bucks debut, and you can play his points + assists over at plus money at DraftKings, so I was tempted to grab that here and make this a PLUS JUICE DAYYYY[

But I decided to keep things simple as we keep trying to get a few early wins on the board.

Have fun rooting for Grayson Allen tonight. I'm sure it'll be a trip.