The Minnesota Timberwolves (14-14) and Dallas Mavericks (19-10) face off in the NBA on Christmas Day. Tipoff is set for 2:30 p.m. ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Mavericks are 5.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread, with the over/under set at 221.5 total points. Dallas is a -210 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is +170 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, December 25.
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks
Spread
The spread opened at Mavericks -4 and has climbed to Mavericks -5.5. The market is saying this is a loud Mavericks spot as the Wolves continue to struggle.
I tend to agree — this is a Mavericks spot as they are healthy, at home and playing strong basketball. Luka Doncic has owned this matchup in the last year or so, with multiple near walk-off finishes as he screams to the crowd.
It is a pricey spread to pay at -5.5, but with the way these teams are playing right now it makes sense.
Moneyline
The moneyline is set around -220 for the Mavericks and +180 for the Wolves.
In both directions, I think the ML makes sense for part of the exposure of a bet position. Regardless of which team you like, splitting your unit up into half spread/half ML for either insurance on a pricey Mavericks spread or getting an escalator on a Wolves ML makes a lot of sense. It is not always a binary decision to play the spread or ML, it can definitely be both.
Over/Under
The total is set at 221.5 and my favorite line on this game is the under. This is a very early start time, despite it being a 2:30 p.m. ET tipoff, that is 12:30 p.m. local time in Dallas.
Players are creatures of habit and have established pregame routines with nap times, meals, etc. On Christmas morning, there's likely some family activity before getting to the arena.
The first quarter is often still a warmup, and then pace reduces throughout the contest. The best bet for this game is the under at a number above 220.
My Pick: Under 221.5 (-110)
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 221.5 -110 / -110 | +170 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 221.5 -110 / -110 | -210 |
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -5.5
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks over/under: 221.5 total points
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks moneyline: Timberwolves +170, Mavericks -210
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks best bet: Under 221.5 (-110)
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks NBA Christmas Day Preview
This rematch between last year's Western Conference Finals goes down as an early start time in Dallas on Christmas Day.
Considering the rivalry, the intensity, the spotlight and the early start time, the best bet has to be the under.
I suspect action comes in between now and tip and this closes around 220 points. If the first quarter is fast, which some Mavericks openers are, then the live under on an inflated number in the second quarter will be a possible double-down spot for me in game.
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Predictions, Best Bets
Despite liking the under in this game, there is actually one over prop that catches my eye: P.J. Washington Over 1.5 3-pointers made.
At the time of writing, the best price is +110 at Fanduel. This prop opened at +125 and now is priced between -110 and +110 — clearly the over is the market side to be on.
When teams play against Rudy Gobert, the drive and kick becomes a key part of the offense, and regardless of the driver between Doncic or Kyrie Irving, Washington will be a possible kick-out option.
Washington is lethal from the corner 3 and he should get multiple opportunities. If you parlay an over prop with a game under you avoid some of the correlation tax put on SGPs as well.
Best Bet: Under 221.5
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Parlay Picks
- Under 221.5
- P.J. Washington Over 1.5 Three-Pointers
Parlay Payout: +289
