The Minnesota Timberwolves (37-29) and Denver Nuggets (42-23) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Nuggets are 4-point favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread (Nuggets -4), with the over/under set at 234.5 total points. Denver is a -170 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is +142 to pull off the upset.
Will Nikola Jokic put up another dazzling MVP-level performance against their division rival? Or will the Wolves once again prove to be too much for Denver’s offensive attack? Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, March 12.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Picks, Prediction
Spread
I lean toward Wolves +4 in this spot.
Moneyline
My Nuggets vs. Timberwolves best bet is on Minnesota to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Over/Under
I think the total is just right on the money. I’ll stay away from it.
My Pick: Timberwolves Moneyline (+142)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -112 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | +142 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -108 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Preview spread: Nuggets -4
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Preview over/under: 234.5 total points
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Preview moneyline: Nuggets -170, Timberwolves +142
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Preview best bet: Timberwolves ML (+142)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Preview
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Nuggets, fresh off their best win of the season against the Thunder, take on the Minnesota Timberwolves Wednesday night.
Minnesota has had a slight advantage in this matchup recently. They split with the Nuggets in the regular season last year, tussled Denver down for the count in a brutal seven-game series last year, and lead the Nuggets 2-0 this season.
If you were in a basketball player lab and built the kind of wings to defend Jamal Murray, you would wind up with Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, and Nickiel Alexander-Walker. Lithe, quick guards who can get over screens to contest and take away space while also being athletic enough to make multiple rotations.
Rudy Gobert is, at this point, the most able Jokic defender in the league. He still gets cooked because every single center gets their turn on Jokic’s grill, but Gobert at least acquits himself and even wins the matchup some nights, which is more than most can say.
Without Aaron Gordon, who is doubtful with calf soreness, the Nuggets have no one to match up with Julius Randle. Peyton Watson is too light, Russell Westbrook is too small, and Zeke Nnaji will likely have the same problem as Watson.
Minnesota is the 9th-best team in forcing turnovers, and turnovers and points off them are Denver’s Achilles heel.
There’s also a letdown effect, as Denver is coming off a two-game set in OKC and playing its third game in four nights.
Denver Nuggets
Offensively, the Nuggets have better matchups for Anthony Edwards than they used to have. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a great defender, but he struggles with bigger, stronger assignments in isolation. Christian Braun is better at meeting physicality with physicality.
The Wolves aren’t well built to attack Denver in a few aspects. Minnesota isn’t as dominant on the glass this year, and they are only 16th in transition offense.
Nikola Jokic. There’s nothing specific about him; just in general, he’s a matchup advantage.
The Murray component is interesting. He’s playing not just the best basketball of this season but really since the 2023 playoffs. He’s moving better, getting better separation, and hitting tough shots off-balance. If he’s able to get loose, he can break the Wolves’ scheme.
Denver’s second unit is… not terrible? They’ve been better since moving to more versatile, athletic frontcourt options. Just not being hugely negative can swing these games.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction
On power rating, I make this Nuggets -2. The Wolves’ matchup advantage is worth at least two points, making this a pick’em, and that puts value on the Wolves on the moneyline.
The Wolves are actually top ten in both offense and defense. You can argue that they’re actually better than Denver on the whole, statistically.
I’ll back Minnesota to get the upset.
Best Bet: Timberwolves Moneyline (+142)
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends
