The Minnesota Timberwolves (14-14) and Houston Rockets (20-9) face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Rockets are 1-point favorites over the Wolves on the spread (Rockets -1) , with the over/under set at 213 total points. Houston is a -115 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks for Friday, December 27.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Picks, Prediction
Spread
I will not be picking either side in tonight's matchup with the spread set at Rockets -1, as I could see this one going either way.
Moneyline
Instead of betting on one of these teams to win the game, I will be targeting the game total and prop markets.
Over/Under
My Rockets vs. Timberwolves best bet is on the Under at 213.5 total points, with the best line available at FanDuel. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Under 213.5 (-115)
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 213 -110 / -110 | -105 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 213 -110 / -110 | -115 |
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets spread: Rockets -1
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets over/under: 213 points
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets moneyline: Timberwolves -105, Rockets -115
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets best bet: Under 213.5 (-115)
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Preview
On Christmas Day, the Timberwolves were able to hold off a late Mavericks rally for a 105-99 victory. In his first Christmas game, Anthony Edwards led the way 26 points, eight rebounds, and five assists while icing the game with two pivotal buckets down the stretch. The Timberwolves enter this matchup having won six of their last 10 games.
Meanwhile, the Rockets have won four straight games since losing to the Thunder in the NBA Cup Semifinals. They have scored at least 114 points in all four wins, but they have particularly enjoyed beating up on the Pelicans. That includes a 128-111 victory in New Orleans last night.
However, offense may not come as easily for Houston tonight as it travels back home. Over the last 15 games, Minnesota is second in defensive rating. That has come while ranking 26th in pace. However, don't expect Minnesota to light it up tonight either.
This month, Minnesota has failed to score 110 points in any game. At times, its offense has routinely stagnated, resulting several quarters below 20 points. Minnesota ranks 26th in offensive rating over its past 15 games and it will face a Rockets defense that ranks third in defensive rating over that span. The Rockets are also second in defensive rating at home this season.
If the expectation is both teams will struggle to score tonight, this is a game that should have a lot of rebounds. The Rockets lead the NBA with 49.7 rebounds per game, and have four players averaging six rebounds per game. Center Alperen Sengun leads the team with 10.5 rebounds per game, which ranks 10th in the league this season.
Just ahead of Sengun is Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert, who is ninth in the league at 10.6 rebounds. However, Gobert has actually has recorded 10 rebounds in just four of his last 10 games. There may be more value backing Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Prediction
The Rockets and Timberwolves are both top-four in points allowed per game this season and top-three in defensive rating over the last 15 games. The Rockets are also on the second night of back-to-back.
This game has all the makings of a low-scoring slugfest between these elite defensive teams.
The first meeting this season did go over the total, but it took 24 points in overtime to do so. Without overtime tonight, we will be in good shape if regulation ends with 204 points like in the first meeting, with the total set at 213.5 tonight.
Additionally, eight of Minnesota's last 10 games have went under, and three of those games closed with totals between 211.5 and 214.5 points.
For my same game parlay, I will be focusing on rebounds. Sengun has 10 rebounds in five of his last seven games, and each of his last two games against Minnesota.
Jaden McDaniels has had four rebounds in six of his last seven games, and he recorded at least six rebounds in five of those outings. In the lone miss, he played just 20 minutes due to foul trouble against Atlanta.
Meanwhile, for Randle, I will also be tacking on assists for the combo. Randle has had 12 rebounds + assists in five of his past eight games. He has gotten (or nearly gotten) there with rebounds alone in three of those games with 11, 13, and 10 rebounds over that span.
However, over his last two games, Randle had 13 rebounds and seven assists against Atlanta and 10 rebounds and eight assists against Dallas. With 20 and 18 rebounds + assists in those games, we have some wiggle room for him to regress and still go over 11.5 tonight.
Best Bet: Under 213.5
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Alperen Sengun Over 9.5 Rebounds
- Jaden McDaniels Over 3.5 Rebounds
- Julius Randle Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists
Parlay Payout: +399
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends
